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The Performance of Non-linear Exchange Rate Models: A Forecasting Comparison

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Author Info
Boero, Gianna
Marrocu, Emanuela

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Abstract

In recent years there has been a considerable development in modelling nonlinearities and asymmetries in economic and financial variables. The aim of the current paper is to compare the forecasting performance of different models for the returns of three of the most traded exchange rates in terms of the U.S. dollar, namely the French franc (FF/$), the German mark (DM/$) and the Japanese yen (Y/$). The relative performance of non-linear models of the SETAR, STAR and GARCH types is contrasted with their linear counterparts. The results show that if attention is restricted to mean square forecast errors, the performance of the models, when distinguishable, tends to favor the linear models. The forecast performance of the models is evaluated also conditional on the regime at the forecast origin and on density forecasts. This analysis produces more evidence of forecasting gains from non-linear models. Copyright © 2002 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. in its journal Journal of Forecasting.

Volume (Year): 21 (2002)
Issue (Month): 7 (November)
Pages: 513-42
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Handle: RePEc:jof:jforec:v:21:y:2002:i:7:p:513-42

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Web page: http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/cgi-bin/jhome/2966

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  1. Gianna Boero & Emanuela Marrocu, 2002. "The performance of Setar Models: a regime conditional evaluation of point, interval and density forecasts," Working Paper CRENoS 200208, Centre for North South Economic Research, University of Cagliari and Sassari, Sardinia. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Guido Ascari & Emanuela Marrocu, 2003. "Forecasting inflation: a comparison of linear Phillips curve models and nonlinear time serie models," Working Paper CRENoS 200307, Centre for North South Economic Research, University of Cagliari and Sassari, Sardinia. [Downloadable!]
  3. Gianna Boero & Jeremy Smith & Kenneth F. Wallis, 2002. "The properties of some goodness-of-fit tests," Working Paper CRENoS 200209, Centre for North South Economic Research, University of Cagliari and Sassari, Sardinia. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Teräsvirta, Timo & van Dijk, Dick & Medeiros, Marcelo, 2004. "Linear models, smooth transition autoregressions, and neural networks for forecasting macroeconomic time series: A re-examination," Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 561, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 04 Nov 2004.
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  5. B. Siliverstovs & D.J. Van Dijk, 2003. "Forecasting industrial production with linear, nonlinear and structural change models," Econometric Institute Report 321, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Econometric Institute. [Downloadable!]
  6. Funke, Michael & Gronwald, Marc, 2007. "The Undisclosed Renminbi Basket: Are The Markets Telling Us Something About Where The Renminbi - US Dollar Exchange Rate Is Going?," BOFIT Discussion Papers 20/2007, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Gianna Boero & Emanuela Marrocu, 2001. "Evaluating non-linear models on point and interval forecasts: an application with exchange rate returns," Working Paper CRENoS 200110, Centre for North South Economic Research, University of Cagliari and Sassari, Sardinia. [Downloadable!]
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