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Abstract

The Meese-Rogoff puzzle, one of the well-known puzzles in international economics, concerns the weak relationship between nominal exchange rates and market fundamentals. The purpose of this paper is to show that market fundamentals do in fact matter in forecasting nominal exchange rates. In particular, we emphasize the importance of the Harrod-Balassa-Samuelson effect in modeling deviations from purchasing power parity. Based on the post-Bretton Woods period, we provide solid out-of-sample evidence that rejects the random walk forecast model at medium-term and long-term forecast horizons. We also find mild evidence for out-of-sample predictability of nominal exchange rates over the short term.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of International Money and Finance.

Volume (Year): 28 (2009)
Issue (Month): 6 (October)
Pages: 1045-1063

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Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:28:y:2009:i:6:p:1045-1063

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30443

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Keywords: Purchasing power parity Nominal exchange rates Real exchange rates Random walks Long-horizon regression tests;

References

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Cited by:

1. Joscha Beckmann & Ansgar Belke & Michael Kühl, 2011. "The dollar-euro exchange rate and macroeconomic fundamentals: a time-varying coefficient approach," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 147(1), pages 11-40, April.
2. Joscha Beckmann, 2011. "Nonlinear Adjustment, Purchasing Power Parity and the Role of Nominal Exchange Rates and Prices," Ruhr Economic Papers 0272, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
3. Chortareas, Georgios & Jiang, Ying & Nankervis, John C., 2011. "The random-walk behavior of the Euro exchange rate," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 158-162, September.

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