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Is Official Exchange Rate Intervention Effective?

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Author Info
Mark P. Taylor

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Abstract

I examine the effectiveness of exchange rate intervention within the context of a Markov-switching model for the real exchange rate. The probability of switching between stable and unstable regimes depends nonlinearly upon the amount of intervention, the degree of misalignment and the duration of the regime. Applying this to dollar-mark data for the period 1985-98, I find that intervention increases the probability of stability when the rate is misaligned, and that its influence grows with the degree of misalignment. However, intervention within a small neighbourhood of equilibrium will result in a greater probability of instability. Copyright (c) The London School of Economics and Political Science 2004.

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Article provided by London School of Economics and Political Science in its journal Economica.

Volume (Year): 71 (2004)
Issue (Month): (02)
Pages: 1-11
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Handle: RePEc:bla:econom:v:71:y:2004:i::p:1-11

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Durland, J Michael & McCurdy, Thomas H, 1994. "Duration-Dependent Transitions in a Markov Model of U.S. GNP Growth," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(3), pages 279-88, July.
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  2. Peel, David A & Speight, Alan E H, 1997. "Non-linearities in East European Black-Market Exchange Rates," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 2(1), pages 39-57, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert W, 1997. " The Limits of Arbitrage," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 35-55, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Clarida, Richard & Sarno, Lucio & Taylor, Mark P & Valente, Giorgio, 2002. "The Out-of-Sample Success of Term Structure Models as Exchange Rate Predictors: A Step Beyond," CEPR Discussion Papers 3281, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Coakley, Jerry & Fuertes, Ana-Maria & Perez, Maria-Teresa, 2003. "Numerical issues in threshold autoregressive modeling of time series," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(11-12), pages 2219-2242, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 2003. "Critical values for multiple structural change tests," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 6(1), pages 72-78, 06. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Levin, Jay H, 1997. "Chartists, Fundamentalists and Exchange Rate Dynamics," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 2(4), pages 281-90, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Francis X. Diebold & Joon-Haeng Lee & Gretchen C. Weinbach, 1993. "Regime switching with time-varying transition probabilities," Working Papers 93-12, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  9. Mark P. Taylor, 1995. "The Economics of Exchange Rates," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 33(1), pages 13-47, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Mark P. Taylor, 2003. "Purchasing Power Parity," Review of International Economics, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 11(3), pages 436-452, 08. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. McQueen, Grant & Thorley, Steven, 1994. "Bubbles, Stock Returns, and Duration Dependence," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 29(03), pages 379-401, September. [Downloadable!]
  12. Allen, Helen & Taylor, Mark P, 1990. "Charts, Noise and Fundamentals in the London Foreign Exchange Market," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 100(400), pages 49-59, Supplemen. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Taylor, Mark P. & Allen, Helen, 1992. "The use of technical analysis in the foreign exchange market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 304-314, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Peel, D A & Speight, A E H, 1998. "Modelling Business Cycle Nonlinearity in Conditional Mean and Conditional Variance: Some International and Sectoral Evidence," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 65(258), pages 211-29, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Lutz Kilian & Mark P. Taylor, 2001. "Why is it so difficult to beat the Random Walk Forecast of Exchange Rates?," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 01-031/4, Tinbergen Institute. [Downloadable!]
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  16. Cochran, Steven J & Defina, Robert H, 1995. "Duration Dependence in the US Stock Market Cycle: A Parametric Approach," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 5(5), pages 309-18, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Peel, David & Sarno, Lucio & Taylor, Mark P, 2001. "Nonlinear Mean-Reversion in Real Exchange Rates: Towards a Solution to the Purchasing Power Parity Puzzles," CEPR Discussion Papers 2658, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  18. Taylor, Mark P, 1997. "Special Issue on Technical Analysis and Financial Markets: Editor's Introduction," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 2(4), pages 263-66, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Coakley, Jerry & Fuertes, Ana-Maria, 2001. "A Non-linear Analysis of Excess Foreign Exchange Returns," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 69(6), pages 623-42, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  20. Vigfusson, Robert, 1997. "Switching between Chartists and Fundamentalists: A Markov Regime-Switching Approach," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 2(4), pages 291-305, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  21. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 2003. "Computation and analysis of multiple structural change models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(1), pages 1-22. [Downloadable!]
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  22. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 1998. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 47-78, January.
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  23. Lucio Sarno & Mark P. Taylor, 2002. "Purchasing Power Parity and the Real Exchange Rate," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan Journals, vol. 49(1), pages 5. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  24. Maheu, John M & McCurdy, Thomas H, 2000. "Identifying Bull and Bear Markets in Stock Returns," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 18(1), pages 100-112, January.
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