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A New Analysis Of The Determinants Of The Real Dollar-Sterling Exchange Rate: 1871-1994

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Author Info
Ivan Paya () (Universidad de Alicante)
David A. Peel (University Management School)

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Abstract

Nonlinear models of deviations from PPP have recently provided an important, theoretically well motivated, contribution to the PPP puzzle. In recent work the equilibrium level has been modeled either as constant or as time varying with very similar statistical fits and very different economic implications. The high persistence of both PPP deviations and the proxy variables for the equilibrium real rate might create a problem of spurious coefficient significance. This paper investigates the possibility of spurious regression within nonlinear models of PPP. Monte Carlo experiments show that standard critical values are not appropriate in such a context. To illustrate we consider the real Dollar-Sterling exchange rate over the period 1871-1994. Due to many exchange rate regime changes over the sample period we employ a Bootstrap methodology that preserves the original structure of the estimated residuals and obtain new critical values of the coefficient estimates. A nonlinear (ESTAR) process with a time varying equilibrium proxied by relative wealth and relative income per capita seems to parsimoniously fit the data. Our results provide further evidence for the nonlinear model with a shifting equilibrium and the implied speed of adjustment is found to be substantially faster than previously reported in the literature.

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Paper provided by Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie) in its series Working Papers. Serie AD with number 2005-16.

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Length: 22 pages
Date of creation: Apr 2005
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Publication status: Published by Ivie
Handle: RePEc:ivi:wpasad:2005-16

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Related research
Keywords: ESTAR; Purchasing Power Parity; Bootstrapping;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions
C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation

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References listed on IDEAS
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. David Peel & Ivan Paya & E Pavlidis, 2009. "Specifying Smooth Transition Regression Models in the Presence of Conditional Heteroskedasticity of Unknown Form," Working Papers 005913, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department. [Downloadable!]
  2. David Peel & Ivan Paya & Ioannis A. Venetis, 2009. "ESTAR model with multiple fixed points. Testing and Estimation," Working Papers 005916, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department. [Downloadable!]
  3. Ivan Paya & David A. Peel, 2004. "Temporal Aggregation Of An Estar Process: Some Implications For Purchasing Power Parity Adjustment," Working Papers. Serie AD 2004-25, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. David Peel & Ivan Paya & E Pavlidis, 2009. "Real Exchange Rates and Time-Varying Trade Costs," Working Papers 006028, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department. [Downloadable!]
  5. Lothian, James R. & Taylor, Mark P., 2006. "Real Exchange Rates Over the Past Two Centuries : How Important is the Harrod-Balassa-Samuelson Effect?," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 768, University of Warwick, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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