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Forecasting financial crises and contagion in Asia using dynamic factor analysis

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  • Cipollini, A.
  • Kapetanios, G.

Abstract

In this paper we use principal components analysis to obtain vulnerability indicators able to predict financial turmoil. Probit modelling through principal components and also stochastic simulation of a Dynamic Factor model are used to produce the corresponding probability forecasts regarding the currency crisis events affecting a number of East Asian countries during the 1997-1998 period. The principal components model improves upon a number of competing models, in terms of out-of-sample forecasting performance.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Empirical Finance.

Volume (Year): 16 (2009)
Issue (Month): 2 (March)
Pages: 188-200

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Handle: RePEc:eee:empfin:v:16:y:2009:i:2:p:188-200

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jempfin

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Keywords: Financial contagion Dynamic Factor model;

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References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Corder, Matthew & Weale, Martin, 2011. "Banking crises and recessions: what can leading indicators tell us?," Discussion Papers 33, Monetary Policy Committee Unit, Bank of England.
  2. Briceño Avalos, Hernán Ricardo, 2003. "Tipos de Cambio Cuasi-fijo y Posibilidad de Crisis Financieras: Solarizar o Dolarizar la Economía Peruana?
    [Fixed Exchange Rates and Possibilities of Financial Crisis: Solarizar or Dollarization o
    ," MPRA Paper 42029, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Kuper, Gerard H. & Jacobs, Jan P.A.M. & Boonman, Tjeerd M., 2012. "The Global Financial Crisis and currency crises in Latin America," Research Report 12005-EEF, University of Groningen, Research Institute SOM (Systems, Organisations and Management).
  4. Rodrigo César de Castro Miranda & Benjamin Miranda Tabak & Mauricio Medeiros Junior, 2012. "Contagion in CDS, Banking and Equity Markets," Working Papers Series 293, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  5. Tjeerd M. Boonman & Jan P. A. M. Jacobs & Gerard H. Kuper, 2011. "Why didn't the Global Financial Crisis hit Latin America?," CIRANO Working Papers 2011s-63, CIRANO.

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