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Banking crises and recessions: what can leading indicators tell us?

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  • Corder, Matthew

    ()
    (Monetary Policy Committee Unit, Bank of England)

  • Weale, Martin

    ()
    (Monetary Policy Committee Unit, Bank of England)

Abstract

It is widely suggested that there is some relationship between banking crises and recessions. We assess whether there is evidence for interdependency between recessions and banking crises using both non-parametric tests and unconditional bivariate probit models and find strong evidence for interdependence. We then consider whether leading indicators can help predict banking crises and recessions and if these variables can explain the previously obvserved interdependence. Inclusion of exogenous variables means that the observed interdependence between banking crises and recessions disappears - indicating that the observed interdependence is a result of easily observable common causes rather than unobserved links.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Monetary Policy Committee Unit, Bank of England in its series Discussion Papers with number 33.

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Length: 26 pages
Date of creation: 01 Sep 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:mpc:wpaper:0033

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Related research

Keywords: Crises; recessions; interdependency; bivariate probit analysis;

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References

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  1. Cipollini, A. & Kapetanios, G., 2009. "Forecasting financial crises and contagion in Asia using dynamic factor analysis," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 188-200, March.
  2. Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2009. "Credit Booms Gone Bust: Monetary Policy, Leverage Cycles and Financial Crises, 1870–2008," NBER Working Papers 15512, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Elisabetta Falcetti & Merxe Tudela, 2008. "What do Twins Share? A Joint Probit Estimation of Banking and Currency Crises," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 75(298), pages 199-221, 05.
  4. John H. Boyd & Pedro Gomis & Sungkyu Kwak & Bruce D. Smith, 2000. "A User's Guide to Banking Crises," Development Research Unit Working Paper Series archive-36, Monash University, Department of Economics.
  5. Gourieroux, Christian & Monfort, Alain & Renault, Eric & Trognon, Alain, 1987. "Generalised residuals," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1-2), pages 5-32.
  6. Ray Barrell & E Philip Davis & Tatiana Fic & Dawn Holland & Simon Kirby & Iana Liadze, 2009. "Optimal Regulation of Bank Capital and Liquidity: How to Calibrate New International Standards," Occasional Papers 38, Financial Services Authority.
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Cited by:
  1. Nicholas Oulton & María Sebastiá-Barriel, 2013. "Long and short-term effects of the financial crisis on labour productivity, capital and output," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 48926, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  2. Nicholas Oulton, 2013. "Medium and Long Run Prospects for UK Growth in the Aftermath of the Financial Crisis," CEP Occasional Papers 37, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.

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