Banking crises and recessions: what can leading indicators tell us?
AbstractIt is widely suggested that there is some relationship between banking crises and recessions. We assess whether there is evidence for interdependency between recessions and banking crises using both non-parametric tests and unconditional bivariate probit models and find strong evidence for interdependence. We then consider whether leading indicators can help predict banking crises and recessions and if these variables can explain the previously obvserved interdependence. Inclusion of exogenous variables means that the observed interdependence between banking crises and recessions disappears - indicating that the observed interdependence is a result of easily observable common causes rather than unobserved links.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Monetary Policy Committee Unit, Bank of England in its series Discussion Papers with number 33.
Length: 26 pages
Date of creation: 01 Sep 2011
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Crises; recessions; interdependency; bivariate probit analysis;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
- G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2011-11-01 (All new papers)
- NEP-BAN-2011-11-01 (Banking)
- NEP-CBA-2011-11-01 (Central Banking)
- NEP-MAC-2011-11-01 (Macroeconomics)
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