Forecasting Financial Crises and Contagion in Asia Using Dynamic Factor Analysis
AbstractIn this paper we compare the performance of a regional indicator of vulnerability in predicting, out of sample, the crisis events affecting the South East Asian region during the 1997-98 period. A Dynamic Factor method was used to retrieve the vulnerability indicator and stochastic simulation is used to produce probability forecasts. The empirical findings suggest evidence of financial contagion.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Queen Mary, University of London, School of Economics and Finance in its series Working Papers with number 538.
Date of creation: May 2005
Date of revision:
Financial contagion; Dynamic factor model;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
- C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
- F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2005-05-23 (All new papers)
- NEP-CMP-2005-05-23 (Computational Economics)
- NEP-ECM-2005-05-23 (Econometrics)
- NEP-FIN-2005-05-23 (Finance)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Jan P.A.M. Jacobs & Gerard H. Kuper & Lestano, 2004.
"Currency crises in Asia: A multivariate logit approach,"
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"The Role of the Banking System in the International Transmission of Shocks,"
The World Economy,
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(5), pages 727-754, 05.
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- Evan Tanner, 2002. "Exchange Market Pressure, Currency Crises, and Monetary Policy: Additional Evidence from Emerging Markets," IMF Working Papers 02/14, International Monetary Fund.
- Marcelle Chauvet & Fang Dong, 2004. "Leading indicators of country risk and currency crises: the Asian experience," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, issue Q 1, pages 25 - 37.
- Rodrigo César de Castro Miranda & Benjamin Miranda Tabak & Mauricio Medeiros Junior, 2012. "Contagion in CDS, Banking and Equity Markets," Working Papers Series 293, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
- Kuper, Gerard H. & Jacobs, Jan P.A.M. & Boonman, Tjeerd M., 2012. "The Global Financial Crisis and currency crises in Latin America," Research Report 12005-EEF, University of Groningen, Research Institute SOM (Systems, Organisations and Management).
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