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Currency crises in Asia: A multivariate logit approach

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Author Info
Jan P.A.M. Jacobs (Department of Economics University of Groningen)
Gerard H. Kuper (Department of Economics University of Groningen)
Lestano (Department of Economics University of Groningen)

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Abstract

Indicators of financial crisis generally do not have a good track record. This paper presents an early warning system (EWS) for six countries in Asia in which indicators do work. Our binary choice model, which has been estimated for the period 1970:01–2001.12, has the following features. We compare four different currency crisis definitions, extract a full list of currency crisis indicators from the literature, apply factor analysis to combine the indicators, and introduce dynamics. We find that money growth (M1 and M2), national savings, and import growth correlate with currency crises.

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Paper provided by EconWPA in its series International Finance with number 0409005.

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Date of creation: 08 Sep 2004
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Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpif:0409005

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Related research
Keywords: financial crises; currency crises; early warning system; panel data; multivariate logit; factor analysis;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data
C35 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models
F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Aghion, Philippe & Bacchetta, Philippe & Banerjee, Abhijit, 2001. "Currency crises and monetary policy in an economy with credit constraints," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(7), pages 1121-1150. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Lestano & Jacobs, Jan & Kuper, Gerard H., 2003. "Indicators of financial crises do work! : an early-warning system for six Asian countries," CCSO Working Papers 200313, University of Groningen, CCSO Centre for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Kenneth Rogoff, 1999. "International Institutions for Reducing Global Financial Instability," NBER Working Papers 7265, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Clive Granger & Bwo-Nung Huang & Chin Yang, 1998. "A Bivariate Causality between Stock Prices and Exchange Rates: Evidence from Recent Asia Flu," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series 1998-09, Department of Economics, UC San Diego. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Rose, Andrew K., 1996. "Currency crashes in emerging markets: An empirical treatment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-4), pages 351-366, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Pozo, Susan & Amuedo-Dorantes, Catalina, 2003. "Statistical distributions and the identification of currency crises," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 591-609, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Steven B. Kamin & John W. Schindler & Shawna L. Samuel, 2001. "The contribution of domestic and external factors to emerging market devaluation crises: an early warning systems approach," International Finance Discussion Papers 711, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  8. Demirguc, Asli & Detragiache, Enrica, 2000. "Monitoring Banking Sector Fragility: A Multivariate Logit Approach," World Bank Economic Review, Oxford University Press, vol. 14(2), pages 287-307, May. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Burkart, Oliver & Coudert, Virginie, 2002. "Leading indicators of currency crises for emerging countries," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 107-133, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela, 1999. "The twin crises: The causes of banking and balance of payments problems," MPRA Paper 14081, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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  11. Brenda González-Hermosillo, 1996. "Banking Sector Fragility and Systemic Sources of Fragility," IMF Working Papers 96/12, International Monetary Fund.
  12. Zhiwei Zhang, 2001. "Speculative Attacks in the Asian Crisis," IMF Working Papers 01/189, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  13. Abdul Abiad, 2003. "Early Warning Systems: A Survey and a Regime-Switching Approach," IMF Working Papers 03/32, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  14. Vance L. Martin & Brenda Gonzalez-Hermosillo, & Mardi Dungey & Renee A. Fry, 2004. "Empirical Modelling of Contagion: A Review of Methodologies," Econometric Society 2004 Australasian Meetings 243, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
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  15. Hali J. Edison, 2003. "Do indicators of financial crises work? An evaluation of an early warning system," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(1), pages 11-53. [Downloadable!]
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Dieter Gerdesmeier & Barbara Roffia & Hans-Eggert Reimers, 2009. "Asset price misalignments and the role of money and credit," Working Paper Series 1068, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  2. Herz, Bernhard & Bauer, Christian & Karb, Volker, 2006. "Are twin currency and debt crises special?," Proceedings of the German Development Economics Conference, Berlin 2006 11, Verein für Socialpolitik, Research Committee Development Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Mete Feridun, 2006. "Impact of Liquidity on Speculative Pressure in the Exchange Market," Discussion Paper Series 2006_24, Department of Economics, Loughborough University, revised Dec 2006. [Downloadable!]
  4. Mete Feridun, 2007. "Determinants of Currency Crises in Emerging Markets: An Empirical Investigation on Turkey," Discussion Paper Series 2007_01, Department of Economics, Loughborough University, revised Jan 2007. [Downloadable!]
  5. Andrea Cipollini & George Kapetanios, 2006. "Forecasting Financial Crises and Contagion in Asia using Dynamic Factor Analysis," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 477, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
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