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Are twin currency and debt crises special?

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  • Herz, Bernhard
  • Bauer, Christian
  • Karb, Volker

Abstract

We show theoretically and empirically that twin currency and debt crises should be treated as a particular crisis type. Twin currency and debt crises differ from both pure currency and pure debt crises in their determinants, the course of the crises, and their economic consequences. We find that each crises type has a unique set of macroeconomic causes. We also uncover internal contagion and selection bias effects which may lead to biased results if twin crises are not treated separately. Such a separation considerably improve the efficiency of early warning systems especially on debt and twin crises. --

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Paper provided by Verein für Socialpolitik, Research Committee Development Economics in its series Proceedings of the German Development Economics Conference, Berlin 2006 with number 11.

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Date of creation: 2006
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:gdec06:4734

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Cited by:
  1. Bauer, Christian & Herz, Bernhard & Hoops, Stefan, 2008. "A Cheap Lunch for Emerging Markets: Removing International Financial Market Imperfections with Modern Financial Instruments," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 36(9), pages 1514-1530, September.
  2. Christian Bauer & Bernhard Herz, 2009. "The Dynamics of Financial Crises and the Risk to Defend the Exchange Rate," Research Papers in Economics 2009-03, University of Trier, Department of Economics.
  3. Bauer, Christian & Herz, Bernhard & Karb, Volker, 2006. "How likely are macroeconomic crises in the CIS?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 227-238, June.
  4. Stefan Eichler & Dominik Maltritz, 2011. "Stock Market‐Induced Currency Crises—A New Type of Twins," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(2), pages 223-236, 05.
  5. Hallak, Issam, 2009. "Renegotiation and the pricing structure of sovereign bank loans: Empirical evidence," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 89-103, January.

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