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Are twin currency and debt crises special?

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  • Christian Bauer
  • Bernhard Herz
  • Volker Karb

Abstract

In the literature on currency and banking crises it has become the standard procedure to distinguish pure currency crises, pure banking crises and combined (“twin”) currency and banking crises. We show theoretically and empirically that a similar differentiation should be chosen with regard to currency and debt crises. Twin currency and debt crises differ from both pure currency and pure debt crises in their determinants, course of events, and economic consequences. We find that each type of crises has a unique set of macroeconomic causes. We also identify internal contagion and selection bias effects, which may lead to biased empirical estimates if twin crises are not treated as a specific type of crises. Such a separation allows to significantly improve the efficiency of early warning systems especially for debt and twin crises.

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File URL: http://www.bgpe.de/texte/DP/019_bauer_herz_karb.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Bavarian Graduate Program in Economics (BGPE) in its series Working Papers with number 019.

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Length: 37 pages
Date of creation: Sep 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bav:wpaper:019_bauer_herz_karb

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Keywords: currency crises; debt crises; twin crises; emerging markets;

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References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Bauer, Christian & Herz, Bernhard & Hoops, Stefan, 2008. "A Cheap Lunch for Emerging Markets: Removing International Financial Market Imperfections with Modern Financial Instruments," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 36(9), pages 1514-1530, September.
  2. Bauer, Christian & Herz, Bernhard & Karb, Volker, 2006. "How likely are macroeconomic crises in the CIS?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 227-238, June.
  3. Stefan Eichler & Dominik Maltritz, 2011. "Stock Market‐Induced Currency Crises—A New Type of Twins," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(2), pages 223-236, 05.
  4. Hallak, Issam, 2009. "Renegotiation and the pricing structure of sovereign bank loans: Empirical evidence," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 89-103, January.
  5. Christian Bauer & Bernhard Herz, 2009. "The Dynamics of Financial Crises and the Risk to Defend the Exchange Rate," Research Papers in Economics 2009-03, University of Trier, Department of Economics.

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