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Are twin currency and debt crises special?

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Author Info
Christian Bauer
Bernhard Herz
Volker Karb

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Abstract

In the literature on currency and banking crises it has become the standard procedure to distinguish pure currency crises, pure banking crises and combined (“twin”) currency and banking crises. We show theoretically and empirically that a similar differentiation should be chosen with regard to currency and debt crises. Twin currency and debt crises differ from both pure currency and pure debt crises in their determinants, course of events, and economic consequences. We find that each type of crises has a unique set of macroeconomic causes. We also identify internal contagion and selection bias effects, which may lead to biased empirical estimates if twin crises are not treated as a specific type of crises. Such a separation allows to significantly improve the efficiency of early warning systems especially for debt and twin crises.

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File URL: http://www.bgpe.de/texte/DP/019_bauer_herz_karb.pdf
File Format: application/pdf
File Function: First version, 2006
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Bavarian Graduate Program in Economics (BGPE) in its series Working Papers with number 019.

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Length: 37 pages
Date of creation: Sep 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bav:wpaper:019_bauer_herz_karb

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Related research
Keywords: currency crises; debt crises; twin crises; emerging markets;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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  1. Daniel Gros, 2003. "Who Needs Foreign Banks?," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
  2. Jan P.A.M. Jacobs & Gerard H. Kuper & Lestano, 2004. "Currency crises in Asia: A multivariate logit approach," International Finance 0409005, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Obstfeld, Maurice, 1996. "Models of currency crises with self-fulfilling features," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(3-5), pages 1037-1047, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Guillermo A. Calvo & Enrique G. Mendoza, 1996. "Mexico's balance-of-payments crisis: a chronicle of death foretold," International Finance Discussion Papers 545, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Reuven Glick & Michael Hutchison, 1999. "Banking and currency crises: how common are twins?," Pacific Basin Working Paper Series 99-07, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Guillermo A. Calvo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2000. "Fixing for Your Life," NBER Working Papers 8006, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Richard Cantor & Frank Packer, 1996. "Determinants and impact of sovereign credit ratings," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Oct, pages 37-53. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Jeanne, Olivier, 1999. "Currency Crises: A Perspective on Recent Theoretical Developments," CEPR Discussion Papers 2170, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Maurice Obstfeld, 1994. "The Logic of Currency Crises," NBER Working Papers 4640, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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