Are twin currency and debt crises special?
Abstract
In the literature on currency and banking crises it has become the standard procedure to distinguish pure currency crises, pure banking crises and combined (“twin”) currency and banking crises. We show theoretically and empirically that a similar differentiation should be chosen with regard to currency and debt crises. Twin currency and debt crises differ from both pure currency and pure debt crises in their determinants, course of events, and economic consequences. We find that each type of crises has a unique set of macroeconomic causes. We also identify internal contagion and selection bias effects, which may lead to biased empirical estimates if twin crises are not treated as a specific type of crises. Such a separation allows to significantly improve the efficiency of early warning systems especially for debt and twin crises.Download Info
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Paper provided by Bavarian Graduate Program in Economics (BGPE) in its series Working Papers with number 019.Length: 37 pages
Date of creation: Sep 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bav:wpaper:019_bauer_herz_karb
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Keywords: currency crises; debt crises; twin crises; emerging markets;Other versions of this item:
- Bauer, Christian & Herz, Bernhard & Karb, Volker, 2007. "Are twin currency and debt crises special?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 59-84, April.
- Herz, Bernhard & Bauer, Christian & Karb, Volker, 2006. "Are twin currency and debt crises special?," Proceedings of the German Development Economics Conference, Berlin 2006 11, Verein für Socialpolitik, Research Committee Development Economics.
- F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
- F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
- F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
- F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
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Citations
Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.Cited by:
- Hallak, Issam, 2009. "Renegotiation and the pricing structure of sovereign bank loans: Empirical evidence," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 89-103, January.
- Bauer, Christian & Herz, Bernhard & Hoops, Stefan, 2008. "A Cheap Lunch for Emerging Markets: Removing International Financial Market Imperfections with Modern Financial Instruments," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 36(9), pages 1514-1530, September.
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