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A Gravity Model of International Lending: Trade, Default and Credit

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  • Rose, Andrew K
  • Spiegel, Mark

Abstract

One reason why countries service their external debts is the fear that default might lead to shrinkage of international trade. If so, then creditors should systematically lend more to countries with which they share closer trade links. We develop a simple theoretical model to capture this intuition, then test and corroborate this idea.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 3539.

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Date of creation: Sep 2002
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:3539

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Keywords: bank; bilateral; empirical; loan; panel; theory;

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References

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  1. Bulow, Jeremy & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1989. "Sovereign Debt: Is to Forgive to Forget?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(1), pages 43-50, March.
  2. Kenneth M. Kletzer and Brian D. Wright., 1998. "Sovereign Debt as Intertemporal Barter," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers C98-100, University of California at Berkeley.
  3. Jeremy A.Rogoff Bulow & Kenneth, 1986. "A Constant Recontracting Model of Sovereign Debt," University of Chicago - George G. Stigler Center for Study of Economy and State 43, Chicago - Center for Study of Economy and State.
  4. Ozler, Sule, 1993. "Have Commercial Banks Ignored History?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(3), pages 608-20, June.
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Cited by:
  1. Miguel García-Posada & Josep M.ª Vilarrubia, 2008. "Map of the international exposure of the Spanish economy," Banco de Espa�a Occasional Papers 0807, Banco de Espa�a.
  2. Patrick McGuire & Nikola Tarashev, 2008. "Bank health and lending to emerging markets," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, December.
  3. Shin, Kwanho & Yang, Doo Yong, 2006. "Complementarity between Bilateral Trade and Financial Integration," MPRA Paper 694, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. Soyoung Kim & Jong-Wha Lee & Kwanho Shin, 2006. "Regional and Global Financial Integration in East Asia," Discussion Paper Series 0602, Institute of Economic Research, Korea University.
  5. Hong Bum Jang, 2011. "Financial Integration and Cooperation in East Asia: Assessment of Recent Developments and Their Implications," IMES Discussion Paper Series 11-E-05, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
  6. Hahm, Joon-Ho & Shin, Kwanho, 2006. "Complementarity among International Asset Holdings: Do Banks Have a Special Role?," MPRA Paper 705, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  7. Jose Vicente Martinez and Guido Sandleris, 2008. "Is it Punishment? Sovereign Defaults and the Decline in Trade," Business School Working Papers 2008-01, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella.

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