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Why Does Sovereign Risk Differ for Domestic and Foreign Investors? Evidence from Scandinavia, 1938­­–1948

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Author Info
Waldenström, Daniel () (Research Institute of Industrial Economics)

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Abstract

Recent theoretical models suggest that the costs governments face when defaulting on their domestic and external debt may differ considerably. This paper examines if this proposed cost difference is reflected in sovereign risk spreads across domestic and foreign markets. Specifically, I analyze market yields on Danish government debt in both Denmark and Sweden during 1938–1948, i.e., a period full of political shocks as well as a wartime segmentation of Scandinavian capital markets. By linking the exogenous wartime shocks to changes in the costs of defaulting on domestic and external sovereign debt, it is found that these costs explain a significant part of the variation in the sovereign risk spread across markets. The result is robust to a multitude of tests and the inclusion of additional yield spread influences such as differences in macroeconomic fluctuations, portfolio allocation opportunities, local risk aversion and microstructure institutions.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Research Institute of Industrial Economics in its series Working Paper Series with number 677.

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Length: 24 pages
Date of creation: 23 Nov 2006
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Handle: RePEc:hhs:iuiwop:0677

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Postal: Research Institute of Industrial Economics, Box 55665, SE-102 15 Stockholm, Sweden
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Related research
Keywords: Sovereign Risk; Investor Heterogeneity; Domestic Debt; External Debt; Market Segmentation; Political Economy; Cliometrics;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation
N20 - Economic History - - Financial Markets and Institutions - - - General, International, or Comparative
N24 - Economic History - - Financial Markets and Institutions - - - Europe: 1913-
N44 - Economic History - - Government, War, Law, and Regulation - - - Europe: 1913-

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  1. Paolo Mauro & Nathan Sussman & Yishay Yafeh, 2002. "Emerging Market Spreads: Then Versus Now," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 117(2), pages 695-733, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Karolyi, G. Andrew & Stulz, Rene M., 2003. "Are financial assets priced locally or globally?," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 16, pages 975-1020 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. James R. Lothian & Liuren Wu, 2003. "Uncovered Interest Rate Parity Over the Past Two Centuries," International Finance 0311009, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  4. Newey, Whitney K & West, Kenneth D, 1987. "A Simple, Positive Semi-definite, Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(3), pages 703-08, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Lothian, James R., 2002. "The internationalization of money and finance and the globalization of financial markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(6), pages 699-724, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Daniel Waldenström & Bruno S. Frey, 2006. "Using Markets to Measure Pre-War Threat Assessments: The Nordic Countries facing World War II," IEW - Working Papers iewwp308, Institute for Empirical Research in Economics - IEW. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Reinhart, Carmen & Rogoff, Kenneth & Savastano, Miguel, 2003. "Debt intolerance," MPRA Paper 13932, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Van Rijckeghem, Caroline & Weder di Mauro, Beatrice, 2004. "The Politics Of Debt Crises," CEPR Discussion Papers 4683, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Kenneth M. Kletzer & Brian D. Wright, 2000. "Sovereign Debt as Intertemporal Barter," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(3), pages 621-639, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Chinn, Menzie D., 2006. "The (partial) rehabilitation of interest rate parity in the floating rate era: Longer horizons, alternative expectations, and emerging markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 7-21, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Rose, Andrew K., 2005. "One reason countries pay their debts: renegotiation and international trade," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 189-206, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Bulow, Jeremy & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1989. "A Constant Recontracting Model of Sovereign Debt," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(1), pages 155-78, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Bulow, Jeremy & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1989. "Sovereign Debt: Is to Forgive to Forget?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(1), pages 43-50, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Charemza, Wojciech W. & Majerowska, Ewa, 2000. "Regulation of the Warsaw Stock Exchange: The portfolio allocation problem," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 555-576, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. repec:rus:hseeco:123922 is not listed on IDEAS
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