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Life after default. Private and official deals

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  • Marchesi, Silvia
  • Masi, Tania

Abstract

This paper studies the relationship between sovereign debt default and annual GDP growth distinguishing between private and official deals. Using the Synthetic Control Method to analyze 23 official and private defaulters from 1970 to 2017, we find that private defaults generate output losses both during the crisis and persisting over time. Conversely, official defaulters do not show a permanent drop in GDP per capita, neither during the crisis nor in its aftermath. Using panel data analysis to control for the creditors’ loss (haircut), we confirm that official and private defaults may have different effects on GDP growth.

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  • Marchesi, Silvia & Masi, Tania, 2021. "Life after default. Private and official deals," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:113:y:2021:i:c:s0261560620302953
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2020.102339
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      • Mr. Leonardo Martinez & Mr. Francisco Roch & Francisco Roldán & Mr. Jeromin Zettelmeyer, 2022. "Sovereign Debt," IMF Working Papers 2022/122, International Monetary Fund.
      • Leonardo Martinez & Francisco Roch & Francisco Roldan & Jeromin Zettelmeyer, 2022. "Sovereign Debt," Working Papers 167, Red Nacional de Investigadores en Economía (RedNIE).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Sovereign defaults; Output losses; Synthetic control method;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

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