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Is Debt Relief Efficient?

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Author Info
Henry, Peter B. (Stanford U)
Arslanalp, Serkan

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Abstract

When Less Developed Countries (LDCs) announce debt relief agreements under the Brady Plan, their stock markets appreciate by an average of 60 percent in real dollar terms--a $42 billion increase in shareholder value. In contrast, there is no significant stock market increase for a control group of LDCs that do not sign Brady agreements. The results persist after controlling for IMF programs, trade liberalizations, capital account liberalizations, and privatization programs. The stock market appreciations successfully forecast higher future net resource transfers, investment and growth. Creditors also benefit from the Brady Plan. Controlling for other factors, stock prices of US commercial banks with significant LDC loan exposure rise by 35 percent--a $13 billion increase in shareholder value. The results suggest that debt relief can generate large efficiency gains when the borrower suffers from debt overhang.

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Paper provided by Stanford University, Graduate School of Business in its series Research Papers with number 1837.

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Date of creation: Nov 2003
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Handle: RePEc:ecl:stabus:1837

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Eaton, Jonathan & Gersovitz, Mark, 1981. "Debt with Potential Repudiation: Theoretical and Empirical Analysis," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 48(2), pages 289-309, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Michael Bruno & William Easterly, 1996. "Inflation's Children: Tales of Crises that Beget Reforms," NBER Working Papers 5452, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Peter Blair Henry, 2002. "Is Disinflation Good for the Stock Market?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(4), pages 1617-1648, 08. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Demirguc-Kunt, Asli & Huizinga, Harry, 1993. "Official Credits to Developing Countries: Implicit Transfers to the Banks," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 25(3), pages 430-44, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Bong-Chan Kho & Dong Lee & Rene M. Stulz, 2000. "U.S. Banks, Crises, and Bailouts: From Mexico to LTCM," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(2), pages 28-31, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Boehmer, Ekkehart & Megginson, William L, 1990. " Determinants of Secondary Market Prices for Developing Country Syndicated Loans," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(5), pages 1517-40, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Bulow, Jeremy & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1989. "A Constant Recontracting Model of Sovereign Debt," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(1), pages 155-78, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Serkan Arslanalp & Peter Blair Henry, 2006. "Debt Relief," NBER Working Papers 12187, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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    • Arslanalp, Serkan & Henry, Peter B., 2006. "Debt Relief," Research Papers 1931, Stanford University, Graduate School of Business. [Downloadable!]
  9. Bulow, Jeremy & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1989. "Sovereign Debt: Is to Forgive to Forget?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(1), pages 43-50, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Collins, Susan M, 1990. "Lessons from Korean Economic Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(2), pages 104-07, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Henry, Peter Blair, 2000. "Do stock market liberalizations cause investment booms?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(1-2), pages 301-334. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. William L. Megginson & Jeffry M. Netter, 2001. "From State to Market: A Survey of Empirical Studies on Privatization," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 39(2), pages 321-389, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Peter Blair Henry, 2003. "Capital Account Liberalization, The Cost of Capital, and Economic Growth," NBER Working Papers 9488, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Tesar, Linda L & Werner, Ingrid M, 1995. "U.S. Equity Investment in Emerging Stock Markets," World Bank Economic Review, Oxford University Press, vol. 9(1), pages 109-29, January.
  15. Peter Blair Henry, 2000. "Stock Market Liberalization, Economic Reform, and Emerging Market Equity Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(2), pages 529-564, 04. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Myers, Stewart C., 1977. "Determinants of corporate borrowing," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 147-175, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Imbs, Jean & Ranciere, Romain, 2005. "The overhang hangover," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3673, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Flores Prieto, Pedro & Fullerton, Thomas M., Jr. & Andrade Olivas, Cesar, 2007. "Evidencia empirica sobre deuda externa, inversion, y crecimiento en Mexico, 1980-2003
    [Empirical evidence on foreign debt, investment, and growth in Mexico, 1980-2003]    ," MPRA Paper 9497, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Apr 2007. [Downloadable!]
  3. Serkan Arslanalp & Peter Blair Henry, 2006. "Debt Relief," NBER Working Papers 12187, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
    • Arslanalp, Serkan & Henry, Peter B., 2006. "Debt Relief," Research Papers 1931, Stanford University, Graduate School of Business. [Downloadable!]
  4. Nicolas Depetris Chauvin & Aart Kraay, 2005. "What Has 100 Billion Dollars Worth of Debt Relief Done for Low- Income Countries?," International Finance 0510001, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  5. Henry, Peter B., 2007. "Capital Account Liberalization: Theory, Evidence, and Speculation," Research Papers 1974, Stanford University, Graduate School of Business. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Serkan Arslanalp & Peter Blair Henry, 2004. "Helping the Poor to Help Themselves: Debt Relief or Aid," NBER Working Papers 10230, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Jie Yang & Dan Nyberg, 2009. "External Debt Sustainability in HIPC Completion Point Countries: An Update," IMF Working Papers 09/128, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  8. Ralf Hepp, 2005. "Consequences of Debt Relief Initiatives in the 1990s," International Finance 0510004, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  9. Silvia Marchesi & Alessandro Missale, 2007. "How defensive were lending and aid to HIPC?," Working Papers 115, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised 2007. [Downloadable!]
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