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Is the Invisible Hand Discerning or Indiscriminate? Investment and Stock Prices in the Aftermath of Capital Account Liberalizations

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Author Info
Henry, Peter B. (Stanford U)
Chari, Anusha (U of Michigan)
Abstract

We confront the two opposing views of capital account liberalization in developing countries with a new firm-level dataset on investment, stock prices, and sales. In the three-year period following liberalizations, the growth rate of the typical firm’s capital stock exceeds its pre-liberalization mean by an average of 5.4 percentage points. The return to capital rises in the post-liberalization period, suggesting that the investment boom does not constitute a wasteful binge. In the cross section, changes in investment are significantly correlated with the signals about fundamentals embedded in the stock price changes that occur upon liberalization. Panel data estimations show that a 1-percentage point increase in a firm’s expected future cash flow predicts a 4.1-percentage point increase in its investment; the country-specific shock to the cost of capital predicts a 2.3-percentage point increase in investment; firm-specific changes in risk premia do not affect investment.

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Paper provided by Stanford University, Graduate School of Business in its series Research Papers with number 1839.

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Date of creation: Jan 2004
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Handle: RePEc:ecl:stabus:1839

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  1. Kristin J. Forbes, 2005. "The Microeconomic Evidence on Capital Controls: No Free Lunch," NBER Working Papers 11372, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Shaun K. Roache, 2006. "Domestic Investment and the Cost of Capital in the Caribbean," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 6(3). [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Kerstin Gerling, 2008. "The Real Consequences of Financial Market Integration when Countries Are Heterogeneous," Working Papers 141, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank). [Downloadable!]
  4. Shaun K. Roache, 2006. "Domestic Investment and the Cost of Capital in the Caribbean," IMF Working Papers 06/152, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  5. Elias Papaioannou, 2007. "Finance and growth - a macroeconomic assessment of the evidence from a European angle," Working Paper Series 787, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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