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Financial Globalization and Emerging Markets: With or Without Crash?

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Author Info
Philippe Martin
Helene Rey

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Abstract

We analyze the impact of financial globalization on asset prices, investment and the possibility of crashes driven by self-fulfilling expectations in emerging markets. In a two-country model with one emerging market (intermediate income level) and one industrialized country (high income level), we show that liberalization of capital flows increases asset prices, investment and income in the emerging market. However, for intermediate levels of international financial transaction costs, we find that pessimistic expectations can be self-fulfilling, leading to a financial crash. The crash is accompanied by capital flight, a drop in income and investment below the financial autarky level and more market incompleteness. We show that emerging markets are more prone to financial crashes simply because they have a lower income level and not because of the existence of market failures (moral hazard or credit constraints), bad monetary policies or exchange rate regimes.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 9288.

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Date of creation: Oct 2002
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:9288

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F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance

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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Bonfiglioli, Alessandra & Mendicino, Caterina, 2004. "Financial Liberalization, Banking Crises and Growth: Assessing the Links," Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 567, Stockholm School of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  2. Martin, Philippe & Rey, Hélène, 2005. "Globalization and Emerging Markets: With or Without Crash?," CEPR Discussion Papers 5165, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Joshua Aizenman, 2004. "Financial Opening: Evidence and Policy Options," NBER Chapters, in: Challenges to Globalization: Analyzing the Economics, pages 473-498 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Antonin Aviat & Nicolas Coeurdacier, 2004. "The geography of trade in goods and asset holdings," DELTA Working Papers 2004-10, DELTA (Ecole normale supérieure). [Downloadable!]
  5. Ajit Singh, 2003. "Capital Account Liberalization, Free Long-Term Capital Flows, Financial Crises and Economic Development," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 29(2), pages 191-216, Spring. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Martínez, Juan & Santiso, Javier, 2003. "Financial Markets and Politics: The Confidence Game in Latin American Emerging Economies," MPRA Paper 12909, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  7. Alessandra Bonfiglioli & Caterina Mendicino, 2004. "Financial Liberalization, Bank Crises and Growth: Assessing the Links," Economics Working Papers 946, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Martin D. D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 2003. "Are Different-Currency Assets Imperfect Substitutes?," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
  9. Enrique G. Mendoza & Katherine A. Smith, 2004. "Quantitative Implication of A Debt-Deflation Theory of Sudden Stops and Asset Prices," NBER Working Papers 10940, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Joshua Aizenman, 2003. "Reforming the global financial system," Center for Global, International and Regional Studies, Working Paper Series 1019, Center for Global, International and Regional Studies, UC Santa Cruz. [Downloadable!]
  11. Gino Gancia & Fabrizio Zilibotti, 2005. "Horizontal Innovation in the Theory of Growth and Development," Economics Working Papers 831, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  12. Anusha Chari & Peter Blair Henry, 2004. "Is the Invisible Hand Discerning or Indiscriminate? Investment and Stock Prices in the Aftermath of Capital Account Liberalizations," NBER Working Papers 10318, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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