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Globalization and Emerging Markets: With or Without Crash?

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Author Info
Philippe Martin
Hélène Rey

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Abstract

We analyze the effects of financial and trade globalization on the likelihood of financial crashes in emerging markets. While trade globalization always makes crashes less likely, financial globalization may make them more likely, especially when trade costs are high. Pessimistic expectations can be self-fulfilling and lead to a collapse in demand for goods and assets. Such a crash comes with a current account reversal and drops in income and investment. Lower-income countries are more prone to such demand-based financial crises. A quantitative evaluation shows our model is consistent with the main stylized facts of financial crashes in emerging markets. (JEL F12, F32, F37, F41, O16)

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Publisher Info
Article provided by American Economic Association in its journal American Economic Review.

Volume (Year): 96 (2006)
Issue (Month): 5 (December)
Pages: 1631-1651
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Handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:96:y:2006:i:5:p:1631-1651

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Joshua Aizenman, 2002. "Financial Opening: Evidence and Policy Options," NBER Working Papers 8900, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Vasco Cúrdia, 2005. "Monetary Policy under Sudden Stops," International Finance 0510025, EconWPA, revised 02 Nov 2005. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Coeurdacier , Nicolas & Martin, Philippe, 2007. "The geography of asset holdings: Evidence from Sweden," Working Paper Series 202, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden). [Downloadable!]
  4. Coeurdacier, Nicolas & Martin, Philippe, 2007. "The Geography of Asset Trade and the Euro: Insiders and Outsiders," CEPR Discussion Papers 6032, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Aaron Tornell, . "Decomposing the Effects of Financial Liberalization: Crises vs. Growth (March 2006)," UCLA Economics Online Papers 408, UCLA Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  6. Romain Ranciere & Aaron Tornell & Frank Westermann, 2006. "Decomposing the Effects of Financial Liberalization: Crises vs. Growth," NBER Working Papers 12806, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Enrique G. Mendoza, 2006. "Lessons From the Debt-Deflation Theory of Sudden Stops," NBER Working Papers 11966, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Giorgia Albertin, 2008. "Regionalism or Multilateralism? A Political Economy Choice," IMF Working Papers 08/65, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  9. Coeurdacier, Nicolas & Kollmann, Robert & Martin, Philippe, 2007. "International Portfolios with Supply, Demand and Redistributive Shocks," CEPR Discussion Papers 6482, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  10. Anusha Chari & Peter Blair Henry, 2004. "Is the Invisible Hand Discerning or Indiscriminate? Investment and Stock Prices in the Aftermath of Capital Account Liberalizations," NBER Working Papers 10318, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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