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Sudden Stop, Financial Factors and Economic Collpase in Latin America: Learning from Argentina and Chile

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  • Guillermo A. Calvo
  • Ernesto Talvi

Abstract

This paper shows that the Russian 1998 crisis had a big impact on capital flows to Emerging Market Economies, EMs, especially in Latin America, and that the impact of the Russian shock differs quite markedly across EMs. To illustrate this statement, we compare the polar cases of Chile and Argentina. While Chile exhibited a significant economic slowdown after August 1998, it did not suffer the excruciating collapse suffered by Argentina, where even the payments system came to a full stop. We attribute their difference to the fact that Chile is more open to trade than Argentina, and that it appears to suffer much less from balance-sheet currency-denomination mismatch that was rampant in Argentina before the 2002 crisis (due to large domestic liability dollarization). The paper is essentially descriptive but is in line with and, thus, complements econometric studies like Calvo, Izquierdo and Mejia (NBER Working Paper 10520). The final section addresses policy issues in light of the paper's findings and conjectures.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 11153.

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Date of creation: Feb 2005
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Publication status: published as Serra, Narcis and Joseph E. Stiglitz (eds.) The Washington Consensus Reconsidered: Towards a New Global Governance (Initiative for Policy Dialogue Series). New York: Oxford University Press, 2008.
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:11153

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  1. Guillermo Calvo & Frederic S. Mishkin, 2003. "The Mirage of Exchange Rate Regimes for Emerging Market Countries," NBER Working Papers 9808, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Guillermo A. Calvo & Alejandro Izquierdo & Ernesto Talvi, 2002. "Sudden Stops, the Real Exchange Rate and Fiscal Sustainability: Argentina's Lessons," IDB Publications 6821, Inter-American Development Bank.
  3. Eduardo Lora, 2001. "Structural reforms in Latin America: What has been reformed and how to measure it?," Research Department Publications, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department 4287, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
  4. Guillermo A. Calvo & Alejandro Izquierdo & Luis Fernando Mejía, 2004. "On the Empirics of Sudden Stops: The Relevance of Balance-Sheet Effects," IDB Publications 6516, Inter-American Development Bank.
  5. Calvo, Guillermo A. & Mendoza, Enrique G., 2000. "Rational contagion and the globalization of securities markets," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 79-113, June.
  6. Kevin Cowan & Erwin Hansen & Luis Oscar Herrera, 2005. "Currency Mismatches, Balance Sheet Effects and Hedging in Chilean non-Financial Corporations," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile, Central Bank of Chile 346, Central Bank of Chile.
  7. Graciela L. Kaminsky & Carmen Reinhart, 2003. "The Center and the Periphery: The Globalization of Financial Turmoil," NBER Working Papers 9479, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela, 2001. "Bank Lending and Contagion: Evidence from the Asian Crisis," MPRA Paper 7580, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  9. Guillermo Calvo, 2002. "Globalization Hazard and Delayed Reform in Emerging Markets," JOURNAL OF LACEA ECONOMIA, LACEA - LATIN AMERICAN AND CARIBBEAN ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION.
  10. Reinhart, Carmen & Calvo, Guillermo & Leiderman, Leonardo, 1993. "“Capital Inflows and Real Exchange Rate Appreciation in Latin America: The Role of External Factors," MPRA Paper 7125, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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