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Fiscal and Monetary Policies and the Cost of Sudden Stops

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  • Michael M. Hutchison

    ()
    (Department of Economics, University of California, Santa Cruz)

  • Ilan Noy

    ()
    (Department of Economics, University of Hawaii at Manoa)

  • Lidan Wang

    ()
    (Risk Management, HSBC Credit Card Services, California)

Abstract

This article investigates the effects of macroeconomic policy (monetary and fiscal) on output growth during financial crises characterized by a “sudden stop” in net capital inflows in developing and emerging market economies. We investigate 83 sudden stop crises in 77 countries over 1982-2003 using a baseline empirical model to control for the various determinants of output losses during sudden stop crises. Extending the baseline model to account for policies-- contractionary as well as expansionary-- we measure the marginal effects of policy on output losses. Simple descriptive statistics indicate no apparent correlation between the costs of financial crises and the economic policies pursed at the time. Once controlling for various pre-conditions and other factors, however, we find that monetary and fiscal tightening at the time of a sudden stop crisis significantly worsens output losses.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 200724.

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Length: 33 pages
Date of creation: 17 Jul 2007
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:hai:wpaper:200724

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Keywords: Output losses; financial crises; sudden stops; fiscal policy; financial policy;

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References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Dąbrowski, Marek A. & Śmiech, Sławomir & Papież, Monika, 2013. "Monetary policy options for mitigating the impact of the global financial crisis on emerging market economies," MPRA Paper 56337, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Didier, Tatiana & Hevia, Constantino & Schmukler, Sergio L., 2012. "How resilient and countercyclical were emerging economies during the global financial crisis?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(8), pages 2052-2077.
  3. Luca Agnello & Davide Furceri & Ricardo Sousa, 2013. "Discretionary Government Consumption, Private Domestic Demand, and Crisis Episodes," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 24(1), pages 79-100, February.
  4. Hong, Kiseok & Tang, Hsiao Chink, 2012. "Crises in Asia: Recovery and policy responses," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(6), pages 654-668.
  5. Levan Efremidze & Samuel M. Schreyer & Ozan Sula, 2011. "Sudden stops and currency crises," Journal of Financial Economic Policy, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 3(4), pages 304-321, November.
  6. Aizenman, Joshua & Noy, Ilan, 2012. "Macroeconomic adjustment and the history of crises in open economies," Working Paper Series 2516, Victoria University of Wellington, School of Economics and Finance.
  7. Joseph P Joyce & Ilan Noy, 2005. "The IMF and the Liberalization of Capital Flows," Economics Study Area Working Papers 84, East-West Center, Economics Study Area.
  8. Tsangarides, Charalambos G., 2012. "Crisis and recovery: Role of the exchange rate regime in emerging market economies," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 470-488.
  9. Aizenman, Joshua & Noy, Ilan, 2013. "Public and private saving and the long shadow of macroeconomic shocks," Working Paper Series 2776, Victoria University of Wellington, School of Economics and Finance.
  10. Davide Furceri & Aleksandra Zdzienicka, 2013. "The Euro Area Crisis," IMF Working Papers 13/198, International Monetary Fund.
  11. Markus Jorra, 2011. "The Heterogeneity of Default Costs: Evidence from Recent Sovereign Debt Crises," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201151, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
  12. Agnello, L. & Furceri, D. & R.M, Sousa., 2011. "Fiscal Policy Discretion, Private Spending, and Crisis Episodes," Working papers 354, Banque de France.
  13. Furceri, Davide & Zdzienicka, Aleksandra, 2012. "Banking Crises and Short and Medium Term Output Losses in Emerging and Developing Countries: The Role of Structural and Policy Variables," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 40(12), pages 2369-2378.
  14. Burak Saltoðlu & Devrim Yýlmaz, 2013. "Why is it so Difficult and Complex to Solve the Euro Problem?," Working Papers 2013/02, Bogazici University, Department of Economics.
  15. Fabian Lindner, 2013. "Banken treiben Eurokrise," IMK Report 82-2013, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
  16. Jie Li, 2013. "The effectiveness of fiscal and monetary policy responses to twin crises," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(27), pages 3904-3913, September.

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