This file is part of IDEAS, which uses RePEc data


[ Papers | Articles | Software | Books | Chapters | Authors | Institutions | JEL Classification | NEP reports | Search | New papers by email | Author registration | Rankings | Volunteers | FAQ | Blog | Help! ]

Fiscal and Monetary Policies and the Cost of Sudden Stops

Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics
Author Info
Michael M. Hutchison () (Department of Economics, University of California, Santa Cruz)
Ilan Noy () (Department of Economics, University of Hawaii at Manoa)
Lidan Wang () (Risk Management, HSBC Credit Card Services, California)

Additional information is available for the following registered author(s):

Abstract

This article investigates the effects of macroeconomic policy (monetary and fiscal) on output growth during financial crises characterized by a “sudden stop” in net capital inflows in developing and emerging market economies. We investigate 83 sudden stop crises in 77 countries over 1982-2003 using a baseline empirical model to control for the various determinants of output losses during sudden stop crises. Extending the baseline model to account for policies-- contractionary as well as expansionary-- we measure the marginal effects of policy on output losses. Simple descriptive statistics indicate no apparent correlation between the costs of financial crises and the economic policies pursed at the time. Once controlling for various pre-conditions and other factors, however, we find that monetary and fiscal tightening at the time of a sudden stop crisis significantly worsens output losses.

Download Info
To download:

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. Information about this may be contained in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.economics.hawaii.edu/research/workingpapers/WP_07-24.pdf
File Format: application/pdf
File Function: First version, 2007
Download Restriction: no

Publisher Info
Paper provided by University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 200724.

Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Length: 33 pages
Date of creation: 17 Jul 2007
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:hai:wpaper:200724

Contact details of provider:
Postal: 2424 Maile Way, Honolulu, HI 96822
Phone: (808)956-8730
Fax: (808)956-4347
Email:
Web page: http://www.economics.hawaii.edu/
More information through EDIRC

Order Information:
Email:
Web: http://www.economics.hawaii.edu/research/workingpapers/workingpapers.html

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (Web Technician).

Related research
Keywords: Output losses; financial crises; sudden stops; fiscal policy; financial policy;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:
E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
O16 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Financial Markets; Saving and Capital Investment

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria & Razin, Assaf, 1998. "Current Account Reversals and Currency Crises: Empirical Regularities," CEPR Discussion Papers 1921, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Durdu, Ceyhun Bora & Mendoza, Enrique G., 2006. "Are asset price guarantees useful for preventing Sudden Stops?: A quantitative investigation of the globalization hazard-moral hazard tradeoff," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 84-119, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Gopinath, Gita, 2004. "Lending booms, sharp reversals and real exchange rate dynamics," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(1), pages 1-23, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1999. "Responding to Economic Crises: Policy Alternatives for Equitable Recovery and Development," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 67(5), pages 409-27, Special I. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Ricardo J. Caballero & Arvind Krishnamurthy, 2002. "A Dual Liquidity Model for Emerging Markets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(2), pages 33-37, May. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Aghion, Philippe & Bacchetta, Philippe & Banerjee, Abhijit, 2001. "Currency crises and monetary policy in an economy with credit constraints," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(7), pages 1121-1150. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  7. Graciela L. Kaminsky & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1996. "The twin crises: the causes of banking and balance-of-payments problems," International Finance Discussion Papers 544, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. repec:pal:imfstp:v:50:y:2003:i:1:p:5 is not listed on IDEAS
    Other versions:
  9. Michael Bordo & Barry Eichengreen & Daniela Klingebiel & Maria Soledad Martinez-Peria, 2001. "Is the crisis problem growing more severe?," Economic Policy, CEPR, CES, MSH, vol. 16(32), pages 51-82, 04. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Assaf Razin & Efraim Sadka, 2001. "Country Risk and Capital Flow Reversals," NBER Working Papers 8171, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  11. Ilan Goldfajn & Taimur Baig, 1999. "Monetary policy in the aftermath of currency crisis: the case of Asia," Textos para discussão 399, Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  12. Christiano, Lawrence J. & Gust, Christopher & Roldos, Jorge, 2004. "Monetary policy in a financial crisis," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 119(1), pages 64-103, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Rodrik, Dani, 1999. " Where Did All the Growth Go? External Shocks, Social Conflict, and Growth Collapses," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 4(4), pages 385-412, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  14. Luis Felipe Cespedes & Roberto Chang & Andres Velasco, 2000. "Balance Sheets and Exchange Rate Policy," NBER Working Papers 7840, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  15. Michael Hutchison & Kathleen McDill, 1999. "Are All Banking Crises Alike? The Japanese Experience in International Comparison," NBER Working Papers 7253, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  16. Caballero, Ricardo J. & Krishnamurthy, Arvind, 2004. "Smoothing sudden stops," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 119(1), pages 104-127, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  17. Sebastian Edwards, 2002. "Does the Current Account Matter?," NBER Chapters, in: Preventing Currency Crises in Emerging Markets, pages 21-76 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  18. Roberto Chang & Andres Velasco, 1998. "Financial Fragility and the Exchange Rate Regime," NBER Working Papers 6469, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  19. Robert J. Barro, 2001. "Economic Growth in East Asia Before and After the Financial Crisis," NBER Working Papers 8330, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  20. Guillermo A. Calvo & Alejandro Izquierdo & Ernesto Talvi, 2003. "Sudden Stops, the Real Exchange Rate, and Fiscal Sustainability: Argentina's Lessons," NBER Working Papers 9828, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  21. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Rose, Andrew K., 1996. "Currency crashes in emerging markets: An empirical treatment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-4), pages 351-366, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  22. Reuven Glick & Ramon Moreno & Mark Spiegel, 2001. "Financial crises in emerging markets," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar. 23. [Downloadable!]
  23. Hutchison, Michael M & Noy, Ilan, 2005. "How Bad Are Twins? Output Costs of Currency and Banking Crises," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(4), pages 725-52, August.
    Other versions:
  24. Gupta, Poonam & Mishra, Deepak & Sahay, Ratna, 2007. "Behavior of output during currency crises," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(2), pages 428-450, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  25. Kaminsky, Graciela L., 2006. "Currency crises: Are they all the same?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 503-527, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  26. Guillermo A. Calvo & Alejandro Izquierdo & Luis-Fernando Mejia, 2004. "On the Empirics of Sudden Stops: The Relevance of Balance-Sheet Effects," NBER Working Papers 10520, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  27. Maria Milesi-Ferretti, Gian & Razin, Assaf, 1998. "Sharp reductions in current account deficits An empirical analysis," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(3-5), pages 897-908, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  28. Reuven Glick & Michael Hutchison, 1999. "Banking and currency crises; how common are twins?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Sep. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  29. Fernando A. Broner & Roberto Rigobon, 2005. "Why are Capital Flows so Much More Volatile in Emerging Than in Developed Countries?," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 328, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  30. Nucci, Francesco & Pozzolo, Alberto F., 2001. "Investment and the exchange rate: An analysis with firm-level panel data," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(2), pages 259-283, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  31. Amartya Lahiri & Carlos A. Vegh, 2003. "Delaying the Inevitable: Interest Rate Defense and Balance of Payments Crises," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 111(2), pages 404-424, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  32. Aghion, Philippe & Bacchetta, Philippe & Banerjee, Abhijit, 2004. "A corporate balance-sheet approach to currency crises," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 119(1), pages 6-30, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  33. Kiyotaki, Nobuhiro & Moore, John, 1997. "Credit Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(2), pages 211-48, April.
    Other versions:
  34. Jahangir Aziz & Francesco Caramazza & Ranil Salgado, 2000. "Currency Crises - In Search of Common Elements," IMF Working Papers 00/67, International Monetary Fund.
  35. V. V. Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe & Ellen R. McGrattan, 2005. "Sudden Stops and Output Drops," Levine's Bibliography 122247000000000880, UCLA Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  36. Cristina Arellano & Enrique G. Mendoza, 2002. "Credit Frictions and 'Sudden Stops' in Small Open Economies: An Equilibrium Business Cycle Framework for Emerging Markets Crises," NBER Working Papers 8880, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  37. Stiglitz, Joseph E., 1999. "Lessons From East Asia," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 311-330, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  38. Glick, Reuven & Hutchison, Michael, 2005. "Capital controls and exchange rate instability in developing economies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 387-412, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  39. Martin Schneider & Aaron Tornell, 2004. "Balance Sheet Effects, Bailout Guarantees and Financial Crises," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 71, pages 883-913, 07. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  40. Frankel, Jeffrey, 2005. "Contractionary Currency Crashes In Developing Countries," Working Paper Series rwp05-017, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  41. Michael M. Hutchison & Ilan Noy, . "Sudden Stops and the Mexican Wave: Currency Crises, Capital Flow Reversals and Output Loss in Emerging Markets," EPRU Working Paper Series 02-12, Economic Policy Research Unit (EPRU), University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  42. Joseph E. Stiglitz, 1999. "Reforming the Global Economic Architecture: Lessons from Recent Crises," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(4), pages 1508-1522, 08. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  43. Aaron Tornell & Frank Westermann, 2002. "The Credit Channel in Middle Income Countries," NBER Working Papers 9355, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  44. Guillermo A. Calvo, 2000. "Balance-of-Payments Crises in Emerging Markets, Large Capital Inflows and Sovereign Governments," NBER Chapters, in: Currency Crises, pages 71-104 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
  45. Mody, Ashoka & Murshid, Antu Panini, 2005. "Growing up with capital flows," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(1), pages 249-266, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  46. Vasco Curdia, 2007. "Monetary policy under sudden stops," Staff Reports 278, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  47. Enrique G. Mendoza, 2001. "Credit, Prices, and Crashes: Business Cycles with a Sudden Stop," NBER Working Papers 8338, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  48. repec:rus:hseeco:124089 is not listed on IDEAS
  49. Pritha Mitra, 2006. "Post-Crisis Recovery: When Does Increased Fiscal Discipline Work?," IMF Working Papers 06/219, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  50. Amartya Lahiri & Carlos A. Vegh, 2005. "Output Costs, Currency Crises, and Interest Rate Defense of a Peg," NBER Working Papers 11791, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  51. Mendoza, Enrique G. & Smith, Katherine A., 2006. "Quantitative implications of a debt-deflation theory of Sudden Stops and asset prices," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 82-114, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Ilan Noy & Joseph P. Joyce, 2007. "The IMF and the Liberalization of Capital Flows," Working Papers 200706, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
Statistics
Access and download statistics

Did you know? The most prolific authors have over 700 items listed on IDEAS.

This page was last updated on 2009-11-24.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Department of Economics, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, University of Connecticut using RePEc data on a server sponsored by the Society for Economic Dynamics.