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Exchange rate overshooting and the costs of floating

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  • Fabrizio Perri
  • Michele Cavallo
  • Kate Kisselev
  • Nouriel Roubini

Abstract

Currency crises are usually associated with large nominal and real depreciations. In some countries depreciations are perceived to be very costly (‘fear of floating’). In this paper we try to understand the reasons behind this fear. We first look at episodes of currency crises in the 1990s and establish that countries entering a crisis with high levels of foreign debt tend to experience large real exchange rate overshooting (devaluation in excess of the long run equilibrium level) and large output contractions. We the develop an model of an open economy with monopolistic competition and short-run price stickiness that helps to explain this evidence. The key element of the model is the presence of a margin constraint on the domestic country. Real devaluations, by reducing the value of domestic assets relative to international liabilities, make countries with high foreign debt more likely to hit the constraint. When countries hit the constraint they are forced to sell domestic assets and this causes a further devaluation of the currency (overshooting) and a reduction of their stock prices (overreaction). This fire sale can have a significant negative wealth effect. The model highlights a key tradeoff when considering fixed versus flexible exchange rate regimes; a fixed exchange regime can, by avoiding exchange rate overshooting, mitigate the negative wealth effect but at the cost of additional distortions and output drops in the short run. There are plausible parameter values under which fixed exchange rates dominate flexible from a welfare perspective.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco in its journal Proceedings.

Volume (Year): (2004)
Issue (Month): Jun ()
Pages:

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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfpr:y:2004:i:jun:x:5

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References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Martin D. D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 2003. "Are Different-Currency Assets Imperfect Substitutes?," CESifo Working Paper Series 978, CESifo Group Munich.
  2. Felipe Meza & Erwan Quintin, 2005. "Financial crises and total factor productivity," Center for Latin America Working Papers 0105, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  3. Enrique Mendoza, 2002. "Why Should Emerging Economies Give Up National Currencies? A Case for Institutions Substitution," Research Department Publications 4309, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
  4. Han, Bing & Hirshleifer, David & Wang, Tracy, 2005. "Investor Overconfidence and the Forward Discount Puzzle," MPRA Paper 6497, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Dec 2007.
  5. Saki Bigio & Marco Vega, 2006. "Monetary Policy under Balance Sheet Uncertainty," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 157, Society for Computational Economics.
  6. Michele Cavallo, 2005. "To float or not to float? exchange rate regimes and shocks," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue jan7.
  7. Cavallo, Eduardo A. & Frankel, Jeffrey A., 2008. "Does openness to trade make countries more vulnerable to sudden stops, or less? Using gravity to establish causality," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(8), pages 1430-1452, December.
  8. Philip R. Lane, 2003. "Business Cycles and Macroeconomic Policy in Emerging Market Economies," Trinity Economics Papers 20032, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
  9. Frankel, Jeffrey, 2005. "Contractionary Currency Crashes In Developing Countries," Working Paper Series rwp05-017, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
  10. Brad Setser & Nouriel Roubini & Christian Keller & Mark Allen & Christoph B. Rosenberg, 2002. "A Balance Sheet Approach to Financial Crisis," IMF Working Papers 02/210, International Monetary Fund.
  11. Towbin, Pascal & Weber, Sebastian, 2013. "Limits of floating exchange rates: The role of foreign currency debt and import structure," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 179-194.
  12. Oya Pınar Ardıc & Faruk Selcuk, 2006. "The dynamics of a newly floating exchange rate: the Turkish case," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(8), pages 931-941.
  13. Philippe Beaugrand, 2003. "Overshooting and Dollarization in the Democratic Republic of the Congo," IMF Working Papers 03/105, International Monetary Fund.
  14. Benjamin, David M. & Meza, Felipe, 2007. "Total factor productivity and labor reallocation: the case of the 1997 Korea crisis," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 0701, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.
  15. Yougbaré, Lassana, 2011. "Exchange rate arrangements and misalignments: contrasting words and deeds," MPRA Paper 32362, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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