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Global Growth Opportunities and Market Integration

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Author Info
Geert Bekaert
Campbell R. Harvey
Christian Lundblad
Stephan Siegel

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Abstract

We measure a country's growth opportunities by investigating how its industry mix is priced in global capital markets, using price earnings ratios of global industry portfolios. We derive three sets of empirical results. First, these exogenous growth opportunities strongly predict future changes in real GDP and investment in a large panel of countries. This relation is strongest in countries that have liberalized their capital accounts, equity markets, and banking systems. Second, we re-examine the link between financial development, investor protection, capital allocation, and growth. We find that financial development and investor protection measures are much less important in aligning growth opportunities with growth than is capital market openness. Third, we formulate new tests of market integration and segmentation. Under integration, the difference between a country's local PE ratio and its global counterpart should not predict relative growth, but the difference between its "exogenous" global PE ratio and the world market PE ratio should predict relative growth.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 10990.

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Date of creation: Dec 2004
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:10990

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
O11 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
O57 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Comparative Studies of Countries

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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Quinn, Dennis & Voth, Hans-Joachim, 2008. "Free Flows, Limited Diversification: Explaining the Fall and Rise of Stock Market Correlations, 1890-2001," CEPR Discussion Papers 7013, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Acharya, Viral V & Imbs, Jean & Sturgess, Jason, 2007. "Finance and Efficiency: Do Bank Branching Regulations Matter?," CEPR Discussion Papers 6029, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Pietrovito, Filomena, 2009. "Investment decisions, price-earnings ratios and finance. Evidence from firm-level data," Economics & Statistics Discussion Papers esdp09054, University of Molise, Dept. SEGeS. [Downloadable!]
  4. Gianni De Nicoló & Iryna V. Ivaschenko, 2009. "Global Liquidity, Risk Premiums and Growth Opportunities," IMF Working Papers 09/52, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  5. Dennis Quinn & Joachim Voth, 2006. "A Century of Global Equity Market Correlations," Economics Working Papers 1119, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Oct 2008. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Gianni De Nicolò & Iryna Ivaschenko, 2009. "Global Liquidity, Risk Premiums and Growth Opportunities," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
  7. Gianni De Nicoló & Senay Agca & Enrica Detragiache, 2007. "Financial Reforms, Financial Openness, and Corporate Borrowing: International Evidence," IMF Working Papers 07/186, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  8. Rafael La Porta & Florencio Lopez-de-Silanes & Andrei Shleifer, 2007. "The Economic Consequences of Legal Origins," NBER Working Papers 13608, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Ciccone, Antonio & Papaioannou, Elias, 2006. "Adjustment to Target Capital, Finance and Growth," CEPR Discussion Papers 5969, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  10. Gianni De Nicoló & Iryna V. Ivaschenko, 2008. "Financial Integration and Risk-Adjusted Growth Opportunities," IMF Working Papers 08/126, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  11. Elias Papaioannou, 2007. "Finance and growth - a macroeconomic assessment of the evidence from a European angle," Working Paper Series 787, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  12. de la Torre, Augusto & Gozzi, Juan Carlos & Schmukler, Sergio L., 2007. "Capital market development : whither Latin America ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4156, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  13. Geert Bekaert & Campbell R. Harvey & Christian Lundblad, 2009. "Financial Openness and Productivity," NBER Working Papers 14843, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Melvin, Michael / Valero, Magali, 2007. "The Dark Side of International Cross-Listing: Effects on Rival Firms at Home," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  15. de la Torre, Augusto & Gozzi, Juan Carlos & Schmukler, Sergio L., 2007. "Stock market development under globalization : whither the gains from reforms ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4184, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  16. Geert Bekaert & Campbell R. Harvey & Christian Lundblad, 2004. "Growth Volatility and Financial Liberalization," NBER Working Papers 10560, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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