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Liquidity and Expected Returns: Lessons From Emerging Markets

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Author Info
Geert Bekaert
Campbell R. Harvey
Christian Lundblad

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Abstract

Given the cross-sectional and temporal variation in their liquidity, emerging equity markets provide an ideal setting to examine the impact of liquidity on expected returns. Our main liquidity measure is a transformation of the proportion of zero daily firm returns, averaged over the month. We find that our liquidity measures significantly predict future returns, whereas alternative measures such as turnover do not. Consistent with liquidity being a priced factor, unexpected liquidity shocks are positively correlated with contemporaneous return shocks and negatively correlated with shocks to the dividend yield. We consider a simple asset pricing model with liquidity and the market portfolio as risk factors and transaction costs that are proportional to liquidity. The model differentiates between integrated and segmented countries and periods. Our results suggest that local market liquidity is an important driver of expected returns in emerging markets, and that the liberalization process has not eliminated its impact.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 11413.

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Date of creation: Jun 2005
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:11413

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing
G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies
G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
F02 - International Economics - - General - - - International Economic Order; Noneconomic International Organizations;; Economic Integration and Globalization: General

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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Jianping Mei & Jose Scheinkman & Wei Xiong, 2005. "Speculative Trading and Stock Prices: Evidence from Chinese A-B Share Premia," NBER Working Papers 11362, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Kelly, Bryan & Ljungqvist, Alexander P., 2009. "Testing Asymmetric-Information Asset Pricing Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 7180, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Christian Leuz & Karl V. Lins & Francis E. Warnock, 2006. "Do Foreigners Invest Less in Poorly Governed Firms?," NBER Working Papers 12222, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Viral V. Acharya & Lasse Heje Pedersen, 2004. "Asset Pricing with Liquidity Risk," NBER Working Papers 10814, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Andreas Andrikopoulos & Timotheos Angelidis, 2008. "Idiosyncratic risk, returns and liquidity in the London Stock Exchange: a spillover approach," Working Papers 0017, University of Peloponnese, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  6. Gianni De Nicoló & Iryna V. Ivaschenko, 2009. "Global Liquidity, Risk Premiums and Growth Opportunities," IMF Working Papers 09/52, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  7. Charles P. Thomas & Francis E. Warnock & Jon Wongswan, 2006. "The Performance of International Equity Portfolios," NBER Working Papers 12346, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Gianni De Nicolò & Iryna Ivaschenko, 2009. "Global Liquidity, Risk Premiums and Growth Opportunities," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
  9. Jianping Mei & Jose Scheinkman & Wei Xiong, 2005. "Speculative Trading and Stock Prices: An Analysis of Chinese A-B Share Premia," Levine's Bibliography 122247000000000867, UCLA Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  10. Söhnke M. Bartram & Gregory Brown & René M. Stulz, 2009. "Why Do Foreign Firms Have Less Idiosyncratic Risk than U.S. Firms?," NBER Working Papers 14931, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  11. Söderberg, Jonas, 2008. "Liquidity on the Scandinavian Order-driven Stock Exchanges," CAFO Working Papers 2009:11, Centre for Labour Market Policy Research (CAFO), School of Management and Economics, Växjö University. [Downloadable!]
  12. Charles P. Thomas & Francis E. Warnock & Jon Wongswan, 2004. "The performance of international portfolios," International Finance Discussion Papers 817, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  13. Charles P. Thomas, 2006. "The Performance of International Equity Portfolios," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp162, IIIS. [Downloadable!]
  14. Söderberg, Jonas, 2008. "Do Macroeconomic Variables Forecast Changes in Liquidity? An Out-of-sample Study on the Order-driven Stock Markets in Scandinavia," CAFO Working Papers 2009:10, Centre for Labour Market Policy Research (CAFO), School of Management and Economics, Växjö University. [Downloadable!]
  15. Geert Bekaert & Campbell R. Harvey & Christian Lundblad, 2009. "Financial Openness and Productivity," NBER Working Papers 14843, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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