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Market Liquidity as a Sentiment Indicator

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Author Info
Malcolm Baker
Jeremy C. Stein

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Abstract

We build a model that helps explain why increases in liquidity - such as lower bid-ask spreads, a lower price impact of trade, or higher share turnover - predict lower subsequent returns in both firm-level and aggregate data. The model features a class of irrational investors, who underreact to the information contained in order flow, thereby boosting liquidity. In the presence of short-sales constraints, unusually high liquidity is a symptom of the fact that the market is currently dominated by these irrational investors, and hence is overvalued. This theory can also explain how managers might successfully time the market for seasoned equity offerings (SEOs), by simply following a rule of thumb that involves issuing when the SEO market is particularly liquid. Empirically, we find that: i) aggregate measures of equity issuance and share turnover are highly correlated; yet ii) in a multiple regression, both have incremental predictive power for future equal-weighted market returns.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 8816.

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Date of creation: Feb 2002
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:8816

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing
G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies

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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Jim Clayton & David Ling & Andy Naranjo, 2009. "Commercial Real Estate Valuation: Fundamentals Versus Investor Sentiment," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 38(1), pages 5-37, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Yakov Amihud & Clifford Hurvich, 2004. "Predictive Regressions: A Reduced-Bias Estimation Method," Econometrics 0412008, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Harrison Hong & Jose Scheinkman & Wei Xiong, 2005. "Asset Float and Speculative Bubbles," Levine's Bibliography 122247000000000861, UCLA Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Akifumi Isogai & Satoru Kanoh & Toshifumi Tokunaga, 2004. "An Extension of the Markov-Switching Model with Time-Varying Transition Probabilities: Bull-Bear Analysis of the Japanese Stock Market," Hi-Stat Discussion Paper Series d04-43, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University. [Downloadable!]
  5. Malcolm Baker & Jeffrey Wurgler, 2004. "Investor Sentiment and the Cross-Section of Stock Returns," NBER Working Papers 10449, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  6. Kim, KiHyung, 2007. "The Investors’ Implied Sentiment : A Robust Measure of Risk Appetite," MPRA Paper 5714, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  7. Malcolm Baker & Jeffrey Wurgler, 2003. "A Catering Theory of Dividends," NBER Working Papers 9542, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  8. Jean Helwege & Christo Pirinsky & René M. Stulz, 2005. "Why Do Firms Become Widely Held? An Analysis of the ynamics of Corporate Ownership," NBER Working Papers 11505, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. John H. Cochrane, 2002. "Stocks as Money: Convenience Yield and the Tech-Stock Bubble," NBER Working Papers 8987, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Jung-Wook Kim & Jason Lee & Randall K. Morck, 2004. "Heterogeneous Investors and their Changing Demand and Supply Schedules for Individual Common Stocks," NBER Working Papers 10410, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  11. Malcolm P. Baker & Ryan Taliaferro & Jeffrey Wurgler, 2004. "Pseudo Market Timing and Predictive Regressions," NBER Working Papers 10823, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Malcolm Baker & Jeffrey Wurgler, 2007. "Investor Sentiment in the Stock Market," NBER Working Papers 13189, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  13. Bekaert, Geert & Harvey, Campbell & Lundblad, Christian T., 2006. "Liquidity and Expected Returns: Lessons from Emerging Markets," CEPR Discussion Papers 5946, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  14. Helwege, Jean & Pirinsky, Christo & Stulz, Rene M., 2005. "Why Do Firms Become Widely Held? An Analysis of the Dynamics of Corporate Ownership," Working Paper Series 2005-14, Ohio State University, Charles A. Dice Center for Research in Financial Economics. [Downloadable!]
  15. Owen Lamont & Andrea Frazzini, 2007. "The Earnings Announcement Premium and Trading Volume," NBER Working Papers 13090, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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