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Time-Varying World Market Integration

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Author Info
 Bekaert, Geert
Harvey, Campbell R

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Abstract

We propose a measure of capital market integration arising from a conditional regime-switching model. Our measure allows us to describe expected returns in countries that are segmented from world capital markets in one part of the sample and become integrated later in the sample. We find that a number of emerging markets exhibit time-varying integration. Some markets appear more integrated than one might expect based on prior knowledge of investment restrictions. Other markets appear segmented even though foreigners have relatively free access to their capital markets. While there is a perception that world capital markets have become more integrated, our country-specific investigation suggests that this is not always the case. Copyright 1995 by American Finance Association.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by American Finance Association in its journal Journal of Finance.

Volume (Year): 50 (1995)
Issue (Month): 2 (June)
Pages: 403-44
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Handle: RePEc:bla:jfinan:v:50:y:1995:i:2:p:403-44

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References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Bernard Dumas, 1994. "A Test of the International CAPM Using Business Cycles Indicators as Instrumental Variables," NBER Working Papers 4657, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Eun, Cheol S & Janakiramanan, S, 1986. " A Model of International Asset Pricing with a Constraint on the Foreign Equity Ownership," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 41(4), pages 897-914, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Hamilton, James D., 1988. "Rational-expectations econometric analysis of changes in regime : An investigation of the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 385-423. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Bekaert, Geert & Hodrick, Robert J, 1992. " Characterizing Predictable Components in Excess Returns on Equity and Foreign Exchange Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(2), pages 467-509, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Merton, Robert C., 1980. "On estimating the expected return on the market : An exploratory investigation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 323-361, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-54, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Frankel, Jeffrey & Engel, Charles M., 1984. "Do asset-demand functions optimize over the mean and variance of real returns? A six-currency test," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(3-4), pages 309-323, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Campbell, John Y., 1987. "Stock returns and the term structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 373-399, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Bekaert, Geert, 1995. "Market Integration and Investment Barriers in Emerging Equity Markets," World Bank Economic Review, Oxford University Press, vol. 9(1), pages 75-107, January.
  10. Harvey, Campbell R., 1989. "Time-varying conditional covariances in tests of asset pricing models," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 289-317. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Bansal, Ravi & Hsieh, David A & Viswanathan, S, 1993. " A New Approach to International Arbitrage Pricing," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1719-47, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Ferson, Wayne E. & Harvey, Campbell R., 1994. "Sources of risk and expected returns in global equity markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 775-803, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. K.C. Chan & G. Andrew Karolyi & Rene M. Stulz, 1992. "Global Financial Markets and the Risk Premium on U.S. Equity," NBER Working Papers 4074, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Tim Bollerslev & Jeffrey Wooldridge, 1992. "Quasi-maximum likelihood estimation and inference in dynamic models with time-varying covariances," Econometric Reviews, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 11(2), pages 143-172. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Solnik, Bruno H., 1974. "An equilibrium model of the international capital market," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 500-524, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Geert Bekaert & Campbell R. Harvey & Angela Ng, 2005. "Market Integration and Contagion," Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 78(1), pages 39-70, January. [Downloadable!]
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  17. Harvey, Campbell R, 1991. " The World Price of Covariance Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(1), pages 111-57, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Pagan, Adrian, 1984. "Econometric Issues in the Analysis of Regressions with Generated Regressors," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 25(1), pages 221-47, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Engle, Robert F & Lilien, David M & Robins, Russell P, 1987. "Estimating Time Varying Risk Premia in the Term Structure: The Arch-M Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 391-407, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  20. Dumas, B., 1994. "A Test of the International Capm using Business Cycles Indicators as Instrumental Variables," DELTA Working Papers 94-07, DELTA (Ecole normale supérieure).
  21. Ghysels, E., 1993. "A Time Series Model with Periodic Stochastic Regime Switching," Cahiers de recherche 9314, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
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  22. Stulz, ReneM., 1981. "A model of international asset pricing," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 383-406, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  23. Cumby, Robert E & Glen, Jack D, 1990. " Evaluating the Performance of International Mutual Funds," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(2), pages 497-521, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  24. Black, Fischer, 1972. "Capital Market Equilibrium with Restricted Borrowing," Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 45(3), pages 444-55, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  25. Wayne E. Ferson & Campbell R. Harvey, 1993. "An Exploratory Investigation of the Fundamental Determinants of National Equity Market Returns," NBER Working Papers 4595, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  26. Hamilton, James D., 1990. "Analysis of time series subject to changes in regime," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1-2), pages 39-70. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  27. Errunza, Vihang & Losq, Etienne, 1985. " International Asset Pricing under Mild Segmentation: Theory and Test," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(1), pages 105-24, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  28. Bonser-Neal, Catherine, et al, 1990. " International Investment Restrictions and Closed-End Country Fund Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(2), pages 523-47, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  29. Campbell R. Harvey & Bruno Solnik & Guofu Zhou, 1994. "What Determines Expected International Asset Returns?," NBER Working Papers 4660, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  30. Dumas, B. & Solnik, B., 1994. "The World Price of Foreign Exchange Risk," DELTA Working Papers 94-05, DELTA (Ecole normale supérieure).
  31. Ferson, Wayne E & Harvey, Campbell R, 1993. "The Risk and Predictability of International Equity Returns," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(3), pages 527-66. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  32. Campbell R. Harvey, 1994. "Predictable Risk and Returns in Emerging Markets," NBER Working Papers 4621, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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