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Conditional Asset Allocation in Emerging Markets

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Author Info
Campbell R. Harvey

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Abstract

Within the context of conditional asset allocation strategies, this paper explores the implications of the low correlations of the emerging market returns with developed market returns and the relatively high degree predictability of emerging countries' returns. It is well known that low correlations improve investment opportunities and my research provides out-of-sample validation of the improved performance. However, the most dramatic enhancement is generated by the use of conditioning information. Portfolio strategies that use conditioning information to predict emerging market returns produce impressive out-of-sample performance over the 1980-1992 period.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 4623.

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Date of creation: Jan 1994
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:4623

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
G0 - Financial Economics - - General

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Campbell, J.Y. & Hamao, Y., 1988. "Predictable Bond And Stock Returns In The United States And Japan: A Study Of Long-Term Market Integration," Papers 100, Princeton, Department of Economics - Financial Research Center.
  2. Harvey, Campbell R, 1995. "Predictable Risk and Returns in Emerging Markets," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 8(3), pages 773-816. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Lars Peter Hansen & Robert J. Hodrick, 1983. "Risk Averse Speculation in the Forward Foreign Exchange Market: An Econometric Analysis of Linear Models," NBER Chapters, in: Exchange Rates and International Macroeconomics, pages 113-152 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
  4. Bekaert, Geert & Hodrick, Robert J, 1992. " Characterizing Predictable Components in Excess Returns on Equity and Foreign Exchange Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(2), pages 467-509, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Chen, Nai-Fu & Roll, Richard & Ross, Stephen A, 1986. "Economic Forces and the Stock Market," Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 59(3), pages 383-403, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Harvey, Campbell R., 2001. "The specification of conditional expectations," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 8(5), pages 573-637, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Harvey, Campbell R., 1989. "Time-varying conditional covariances in tests of asset pricing models," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 289-317. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1988. "Dividend yields and expected stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-25, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Ferson, Wayne E. & Harvey, Campbell R., 1994. "Sources of risk and expected returns in global equity markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 775-803, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Geert Bekaert & Campbell R. Harvey, 1994. "Time-Varying World Market Integration," NBER Working Papers 4843, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Harvey, Campbell R, 1991. " The World Price of Covariance Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(1), pages 111-57, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Cumby, Robert E & Glen, Jack D, 1990. " Evaluating the Performance of International Mutual Funds," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(2), pages 497-521, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Ferson, Wayne E & Harvey, Campbell R, 1991. "The Variation of Economic Risk Premiums," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(2), pages 385-415, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Black, Fischer, 1972. "Capital Market Equilibrium with Restricted Borrowing," Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 45(3), pages 444-55, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1989. "Business conditions and expected returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 23-49, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Ferson, Wayne E & Harvey, Campbell R, 1993. "The Risk and Predictability of International Equity Returns," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(3), pages 527-66. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Campbell R. Harvey, 1994. "Predictable Risk and Returns in Emerging Markets," NBER Working Papers 4621, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Jondeau, E. & Rockinger, M., 2002. "Asset Allocation in Transition Economies," Documents de Travail 90, Banque de France. [Downloadable!]
  3. Raúl Susmel, 1998. "Extreme Observations and Diversification in Latin American Emerging Equity Markets," CEMA Working Papers: Serie Documentos de Trabajo. 138, Universidad del CEMA. [Downloadable!]
  4. Geert Bekaert & Campbell R. Harvey, 1994. "Time-Varying World Market Integration," NBER Working Papers 4843, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Michael D. Bordo & Bruce Mizrach & Anna J. Schwartz, 1995. "Real Versus Pseudo-International Systemic Risk: Some Lessons from History," NBER Working Papers 5371, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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