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Conditional Asset Allocation in Emerging Markets

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  • Campbell R. Harvey

Abstract

Within the context of conditional asset allocation strategies, this paper explores the implications of the low correlations of the emerging market returns with developed market returns and the relatively high degree predictability of emerging countries' returns. It is well known that low correlations improve investment opportunities and my research provides out-of-sample validation of the improved performance. However, the most dramatic enhancement is generated by the use of conditioning information. Portfolio strategies that use conditioning information to predict emerging market returns produce impressive out-of-sample performance over the 1980-1992 period.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 4623.

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Date of creation: Jan 1994
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:4623

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  1. Campbell, John Y & Hamao, Yasushi, 1992. " Predictable Stock Returns in the United States and Japan: A Study of Long-Term Capital Market Integration," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(1), pages 43-69, March.
  2. Cumby, Robert E & Glen, Jack D, 1990. " Evaluating the Performance of International Mutual Funds," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(2), pages 497-521, June.
  3. Harvey, Campbell R, 1991. " The World Price of Covariance Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(1), pages 111-57, March.
  4. Chen, Nai-Fu & Roll, Richard & Ross, Stephen A, 1986. "Economic Forces and the Stock Market," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 59(3), pages 383-403, July.
  5. Harvey, Campbell R., 2001. "The specification of conditional expectations," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 8(5), pages 573-637, December.
  6. Campbell R. Harvey, 1994. "Predictable Risk and Returns in Emerging Markets," NBER Working Papers 4621, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Wayne E. Ferson & Campbell R. Harvey, 1994. "Sources of Risk and Expected Returns in Global Equity Markets," NBER Working Papers 4622, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Ferson, Wayne E & Harvey, Campbell R, 1991. "The Variation of Economic Risk Premiums," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(2), pages 385-415, April.
  9. Campbell, J.Y. & Hamao, Y., 1988. "Predictable Bond And Stock Returns In The United States And Japan: A Study Of Long-Term Market Integration," Papers 100, Princeton, Department of Economics - Financial Research Center.
  10. Lars Peter Hansen & Robert J. Hodrick, 1983. "Risk Averse Speculation in the Forward Foreign Exchange Market: An Econometric Analysis of Linear Models," NBER Chapters, in: Exchange Rates and International Macroeconomics, pages 113-152 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1989. "Business conditions and expected returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 23-49, November.
  12. Geert Bekaert & Robert J. Hodrick, 1992. "Characterizing Predictable Components in Excess Returns on Equity and Foreign Exchange Markets," NBER Working Papers 3790, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Geert Bekaert & Campbell R. Harvey, 1994. "Time-Varying World Market Integration," NBER Working Papers 4843, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Black, Fischer, 1972. "Capital Market Equilibrium with Restricted Borrowing," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 45(3), pages 444-55, July.
  15. Ferson, Wayne E & Harvey, Campbell R, 1993. "The Risk and Predictability of International Equity Returns," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(3), pages 527-66.
  16. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1988. "Dividend yields and expected stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-25, October.
  17. Harvey, Campbell R., 1989. "Time-varying conditional covariances in tests of asset pricing models," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 289-317.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Michael D. Bordo & Bruce Mizrach & Anna J. Schwartz, 1995. "Real Versus Pseudo-International Systemic Risk: Some Lessons from History," NBER Working Papers 5371, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Jondeau, E. & Rockinger, M., 2002. "Asset Allocation in Transition Economies," Working papers 90, Banque de France.
  3. Wildmann, Christian, 2010. "What drives portfolio investments of German banks in emerging capital markets?," Discussion Paper Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies 2010,04, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  4. Bekaert, Geert & Harvey, Campbell R, 1995. " Time-Varying World Market Integration," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(2), pages 403-44, June.
  5. Susmel, Raul, 2001. "Extreme observations and diversification in Latin American emerging equity markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(7), pages 971-986, December.
  6. Barras, Laurent, 2007. "International conditional asset allocation under specification uncertainty," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 443-464, September.
  7. Donadelli, Michael & Prosperi, Lorenzo, 2012. "On the role of liquidity in emerging markets stock prices," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(4), pages 320-348.
  8. Bonser-Neal, Catherine & Linnan, David & Neal, Robert, 1999. "Emerging market transaction costs: Evidence from Indonesia," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 103-127, May.
  9. Middleton, C.A.J. & Fifield, S.G.M. & Power, D.M., 2008. "An investigation of the benefits of portfolio investment in Central and Eastern European stock markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 162-174, June.
  10. Harvey, Campbell R, 1995. "Predictable Risk and Returns in Emerging Markets," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 8(3), pages 773-816.
  11. S. G. M. Fifield & D. M. Power & C. D. Sinclair, 2002. "Emerging stock markets: a more realistic assessment of the gains from diversification," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(3), pages 213-229.
  12. Abel, Ernest & Fletcher, Jonathan, 2004. "An empirical examination of UK emerging market unit trust performance," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 5(4), pages 389-408, December.
  13. Raúl Susmel, 1998. "Extreme Observations and Diversification in Latin American Emerging Equity Markets," CEMA Working Papers: Serie Documentos de Trabajo. 138, Universidad del CEMA.
  14. Fletcher, Jonathan & Hillier, Joe, 2002. "An examination of the economic significance of stock return predictability in UK stock returns," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(4), pages 373-392.
  15. Fletcher, Jonathan & Hillier, Joe, 2005. "An examination of linear factor models in country equity asset allocation strategies," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(4-5), pages 808-823, September.
  16. Velimir Šonje & Denis Alajbeg & Zoran Bubas, 2011. "Efficient market hypothesis: is the Croatian stock market as (in)efficient as the U.S. market," Financial Theory and Practice, Institute of Public Finance, vol. 35(3), pages 301-326.

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