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Economic, Financial, and Fundamental Global Risk In and Out of the EMU

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Author Info
Wayne E. Ferson
Campbell R. Harvey

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Abstract

We explore the different factors that drive expected returns in world markets. Our research offers two innovations. First, the introduction of the Euro currency unit greatly reduces the complexity of including foreign exchange risk in asset pricing models. We use a synthetic Euro excess return along with a Yen excess return to assess country equity sensitivities to currency risk factors. Second, when combining the currency factors with a group of economic factors, we measure the incremental information in the factor proposed in Fama and French (1998). We find that a global price-to-book factor offers little additional explanatory power over and above a model that includes economic risk factors.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 6967.

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Date of creation: Feb 1999
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:6967

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing
G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Wayne E. Ferson & Campbell R. Harvey, 1996. "Fundamental Determinants of National Equity Market Returns: A Perspective on Conditional Asset Pricing," NBER Working Papers 5860, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Wayne Ferson & Campbell R. Harvey, 1994. "An Exploratory Investigation of the Fundamental Determinants of National Equity Market Returns," NBER Chapters, in: The Internationalization of Equity Markets, pages 59-147 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1992. " The Cross-Section of Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(2), pages 427-65, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Wayne E. Ferson & Campbell R. Harvey, 1999. "Conditioning Variables and the Cross-Section of Stock Returns," NBER Working Papers 7009, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-54, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Chan, Louis K C & Hamao, Yasushi & Lakonishok, Josef, 1991. " Fundamentals and Stock Returns in Japan," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(5), pages 1739-64, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Eugene F. Fama & Kenneth R. French, 1998. "Value versus Growth: The International Evidence," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(6), pages 1975-1999, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Shanken, Jay, 1990. "Intertemporal asset pricing : An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1-2), pages 99-120. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Dumas, Bernard & Solnik, Bruno, 1995. " The World Price of Foreign Exchange Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(2), pages 445-79, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Davis, James L, 1994. " The Cross-Section of Realized Stock Returns: The Pre-COMPUSTAT Evidence," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(5), pages 1579-93, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Gabriel Hawawini & Donald B. Keim, . "The Cross Section of Common Stock Returns: A Review of the Evidence and Some New Findings," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 07-97, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
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  12. Solnik, Bruno H., 1974. "An equilibrium model of the international capital market," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 500-524, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Jorion, Philippe, 1991. "The Pricing of Exchange Rate Risk in the Stock Market," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 26(03), pages 363-376, September. [Downloadable!]
  14. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1996. " Multifactor Explanations of Asset Pricing Anomalies," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(1), pages 55-84, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Solnik, Bruno, 1983. " The Relation between Stock Prices and Inflationary Expectations: The International Evidence," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 38(1), pages 35-48, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1989. "Business conditions and expected returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 23-49, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Bernard Dumas, 1994. "A Test of the International CAPM Using Business Cycles Indicators as Instrumental Variables," NBER Working Papers 4657, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Harvey, Campbell R, 1995. "Predictable Risk and Returns in Emerging Markets," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 8(3), pages 773-816. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  19. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1993. "Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-56, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  20. Kothari, S. P. & Shanken, Jay, 1997. "Book-to-market, dividend yield, and expected market returns: A time-series analysis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 169-203, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  21. Bernard Dumas, 1994. "A Test of the International CAPM Using Business Cycles Indicators as Instrumental Variables," NBER Chapters, in: The Internationalization of Equity Markets, pages 23-58 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
  22. Solnik, B H, 1974. "The International Pricing of Risk: An Empirical Investigation of the World Capital Market Structure," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 29(2), pages 365-78, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  23. Harvey, Campbell R., 1989. "Time-varying conditional covariances in tests of asset pricing models," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 289-317. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  24. Ferson, Wayne E. & Harvey, Campbell R., 1994. "Sources of risk and expected returns in global equity markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 775-803, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  25. Wayne E. Ferson & Sergei Sarkissian & Timothy Simin, 2002. "Spurious Regressions in Financial Economics?," NBER Working Papers 9143, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  26. Harvey, Campbell R, 1991. " The World Price of Covariance Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(1), pages 111-57, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  27. Solnik, Bruno H, 1977. "Testing International Asset Pricing: Some Pessimistic Views," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 32(2), pages 503-12, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  28. Dumas, B., 1994. "A Test of the International Capm using Business Cycles Indicators as Instrumental Variables," DELTA Working Papers 94-07, DELTA (Ecole normale supérieure).
  29. Ferson, Wayne E & Harvey, Campbell R, 1991. "The Variation of Economic Risk Premiums," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(2), pages 385-415, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  30. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1995. " Size and Book-to-Market Factors in Earnings and Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(1), pages 131-55, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  31. Ferson, Wayne E & Harvey, Campbell R, 1993. "The Risk and Predictability of International Equity Returns," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(3), pages 527-66. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Attiya Y. Javid & Eatzaz Ahmad, 2008. "Test of Multi-moment Capital Asset Pricing Model: Evidence from Karachi Stock Exchange," PIDE-Working Papers 2008:49, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics. [Downloadable!]
  2. Attiya Y. Javid & Eatzaz Ahmad, 2008. "The Conditional Capital Asset Pricing Model: Evidence from Karachi Stock Exchange," PIDE-Working Papers 2008:48, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics. [Downloadable!]
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