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Economic, Financial, and Fundamental Global Risk In and Out of the EMU

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  • Wayne E. Ferson
  • Campbell R. Harvey

Abstract

We explore the different factors that drive expected returns in world markets. Our research offers two innovations. First, the introduction of the Euro currency unit greatly reduces the complexity of including foreign exchange risk in asset pricing models. We use a synthetic Euro excess return along with a Yen excess return to assess country equity sensitivities to currency risk factors. Second, when combining the currency factors with a group of economic factors, we measure the incremental information in the factor proposed in Fama and French (1998). We find that a global price-to-book factor offers little additional explanatory power over and above a model that includes economic risk factors.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 6967.

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Date of creation: Feb 1999
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Publication status: published as Swedish Economic Policy Review, Vol. 6 (1999): 123-184.
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:6967

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  1. Gabriel Hawawini & Donald B. Keim, . "The Cross Section of Common Stock Returns: A Review of the Evidence and Some New Findings," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 08-99, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
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  3. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1989. "Business conditions and expected returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 23-49, November.
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  5. Shmuel Kandel & Robert F. Stambaugh, 1995. "On the Predictability of Stock Returns: An Asset-Allocation Perspective," NBER Working Papers 4997, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  12. Dumas, Bernard & Solnik, Bruno, 1995. " The World Price of Foreign Exchange Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(2), pages 445-79, June.
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  17. Bernard Dumas, 1994. "A Test of the International CAPM Using Business Cycles Indicators as Instrumental Variables," NBER Chapters, in: The Internationalization of Equity Markets, pages 23-58 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Fletcher, Jonathan, 2001. "An examination of predictable risk and return in UK stock returns," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 53(6), pages 527-546.
  2. Mateus, Tiago, 2004. "The risk and predictability of equity returns of the EU accession countries," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 241-266, June.
  3. Jonathan Fletcher & Andrew Marshall, 2005. "An Empirical Examination of U.K. International Unit Trust Performance," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer, vol. 27(2), pages 183-206, April.
  4. Attiya Y. Javid & Eatzaz Ahmad, 2008. "Test of Multi-moment Capital Asset Pricing Model: Evidence from Karachi Stock Exchange," PIDE-Working Papers 2008:49, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics.
  5. Lim, G.C., 2005. "Currency risk in excess equity returns: a multi time-varying beta approach," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 189-207, July.
  6. Attiya Y. Javid & Eatzaz Ahmad, 2008. "The Conditional Capital Asset Pricing Model: Evidence from Karachi Stock Exchange," PIDE-Working Papers 2008:48, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics.
  7. Hooper, Vince & Sim, Ah Boon & Uppal, Asfandyar, 2009. "Governance and stock market performance," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 93-116, June.
  8. Javid, Attiya Yasmin, 2008. "Forecasting performance of capital asset pricing models in case of Pakistani market," MPRA Paper 37562, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  9. Javid, Attiya Yasmin, 2008. "Time Varying Risk Return Relationship: Evidence from Listed Pakistani Firms," MPRA Paper 37561, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  10. Fletcher, Jonathan & Hillier, Joe, 2005. "An examination of linear factor models in country equity asset allocation strategies," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(4-5), pages 808-823, September.
  11. Javid, Attiya Yasmin & Ahmad, Eatzaz, 2008. "Testing multifactor capital asset pricing model in case of Pakistani market," MPRA Paper 37341, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  12. González, M. & Minguez, R., 2005. "The Method Of Simulated Maximum Likelihood For The Estimaton Of Dynamic Ordered Probit: An Application To Country-Risk For Non-Developed Countries," International Journal of Applied Econometrics and Quantitative Studies, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 2(3), pages 99-133.
  13. Marina Emiris, 2002. "Measuring capital market integration," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Market functioning and central bank policy, volume 12, pages 200-221 Bank for International Settlements.

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