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Do Asset-Demand Functions Optimize over the Mean and Variance of Real Returns? A Six-Currency Test

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Jeffrey A. Frankel
Charles Engel

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Abstract

International asset demands are functions of expected returns.Optimal portfolio theory tells us that the coefficients in this relationship depend on the variance-covariance matrix of real returns.But previous estimates of the optimal portfolio (1) assume expected returns constant and (2) are not set up to test the hypothesis of mean-variance optimization. We use maximum likelihood estimation to impose a constraint between the coefficients and the error variance-covariance matrix. For a portfolio of six currencies, we are able statistically to reject the constraint. Evidently investors are either not sophisticated enough to maximize a function of the mean and variance of end-of-period wealth, or else are too sophisticated to do so.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 1051.

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Date of creation: Mar 1985
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:1051

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  1. Grauer, Frederick L. A. & Litzenberger, Robert H. & Stehle, Richard E., 1976. "Sharing rules and equilibrium in an international capital market under uncertainty," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(3), pages 233-256, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Garman, Mark B. & Kohlhagen, Steven W., 1980. "Inflation and Foreign Exchange Rates Under Production and Monetary Uncertainty," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(04), pages 949-967, November. [Downloadable!]
  3. Paul R. Krugman, 1981. "Consumption Preferences, Asset Demands, and Distribution Effects in International Financial Markets," NBER Working Papers 0651, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Merton, Robert C, 1973. "An Intertemporal Capital Asset Pricing Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 41(5), pages 867-87, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Fama, Eugene F & Farber, Andre, 1979. "Money, Bonds, and Foreign Exchange," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(4), pages 639-49, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Rudiger Dornbusch, 1980. "Exchange Rate Economics: Where Do We Stand?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 11(1980-1), pages 143-206. [Downloadable!]
  7. Cornell, W Bradford & Dietrich, J Kimball, 1978. "The Efficiency of the Market for Foreign Exchange under Floating Exchange Rates," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 60(1), pages 111-20, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. E.K. Berndt & B.H. Hall & R.E. Hall, 1974. "Estimation and Inference in Nonlinear Structural Models," NBER Chapters, in: Annals of Economic and Social Measurement, Volume 3, number 4, pages 103-116 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
  9. Parkin, M, 1970. "Discount House Portfolio and Debt Selection," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(4), pages 469-97, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Michael P. Dooley & Peter Isard, 1979. "The portfolio-balance model of exchange rates," International Finance Discussion Papers 141, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  11. Pentti J.K. Kouri & Jorge B. de Macedo, 1978. "Exchange Rates and the International Adjustment Process," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 488, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
  12. Mussa, Michael, 1979. "Empirical regularities in the behavior of exchange rates and theories of the foreign exchange market," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 9-57, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Stulz, ReneM., 1981. "A model of international asset pricing," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 383-406, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Frenkel, Jacob A. & Razin, Assaf, 1980. "Stochastic prices and tests of efficiency of foreign exchange markets," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 6(2), pages 165-170. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Frankel, Jeffrey A., 1979. "The diversifiability of exchange risk," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 379-393, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Engel, Charles M., 1984. "Testing for the absence of expected real profits from forward market speculation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(3-4), pages 299-308, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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