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Consumption Preferences, Asset Demands, and Distribution Effects in International Financial Markets

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Paul R. Krugman

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Abstract

This paper is an attempt to examine some of the microeconomic foundations of this last view of the link between current accounts and exchange rata. Several authors, especially Kouri and de Macedo (1978), but also more recently Dornbusch (1980), have sought to justify the portfolio approach in terms of finance theory, deriving asset demands from a mean-variance framework and arguing that differences in the portfolios of different countries explain why changes in the world distribution of wealth affect exchange rates. What I will do in this paper is to argue that, even under seemingly favorable assumptions, these distribution effects nay run the wrong way; that if they run the right way, they will be very weak; and that the incentives for inter-national, portfolio diversification are in any case small, and can be swamped by quite modest transaction costs or other costs to diversification.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 0651.

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Date of creation: Mar 1981
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:0651

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  1. Rudiger Dornbusch, 1983. "Flexible Exchange Rates and Interdependence," NBER Working Papers 1035, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Richard K. Lyons, 1986. "Tests of the foreign exchange risk premium using the expected second moments implied by option pricing," International Finance Discussion Papers 290, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. David K. Backus & Patrick J. Kehoe, 1988. "On the denomination of government debt: a critique of the portfolio balance approach," Staff Report 116, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Rene M. Stulz, 1994. "International Portfolio Choice and Asset Pricing: An Integrative Survey," NBER Working Papers 4645, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Fischer Black, 1989. "Equilibrium Exchange Rate Hedging," NBER Working Papers 2947, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Kathryn M. Dominguez & Jeffrey Frankel, 1994. "Does Foreign Exchange Intervention Matter? Disentangling the Portfolio and Expectations Effects for the Mark," NBER Working Papers 3299, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Richard E. Baldwin, 1990. "Re-Interpreting the Failure of Foreign Exchange Market Efficiency Tests:Small Transaction Costs, Big Hysteresis Bands," NBER Working Papers 3319, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Charles Engel, 1985. "Do Asset-Demand Functions Optimize over the Mean and Variance of Real Returns? A Six-Currency Test," NBER Working Papers 1051, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Maurice Obstfeld, 2004. "External Adjustment," NBER Working Papers 10843, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. David Gruen & Marianne Gizycki, 1993. "Explaining Forward Discount Bias: Is it Anchoring?," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp9307, Reserve Bank of Australia. [Downloadable!]
  11. Rudiger Dornbusch, 1983. "Equilibrium and Disequilibrium Exchange Rates," NBER Working Papers 0983, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
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