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An international arbitrage pricing model with PPP deviations

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  • Ross Levine

Abstract

This paper develops an intertemporal, international asset pricing model for use in applied theoretical and empirical research. An important feature of the model is that it incorporates both stochastic inflation rates and stochastic Purchasing Power Parity deviations (PPP). The model derives the equilibrium real return on assets, and obtains empirically tractable reduced form equations which can be used to examine such issues as capital market segmentation, currency substitution, exchange rate volatility, and the forward exchange market's risk premium. Mechanically, the model begins as a system of stochastic differential equations which describe the dynamic paths of a vector of state variables, prices, and PPP deviations. The state variables' intertemporal development determines the production and credit opportunities, and provides the model's fundamental dynamic nature. The model is shown to be consistent with the domestic-general equilibrium asset pricing models of Cox, Ingersoll, and Ross (1985) and Brock (1982). The model is applied to pricing forward exchange, and an empirically tractable equation of the risk premium is derived which will allow researchers to uncover the risk premium's economic determinants.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) in its series International Finance Discussion Papers with number 294.

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Date of creation: 1986
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgif:294

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Keywords: Arbitrage ; Prices ; Foreign exchange;

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References

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  1. Breeden, Douglas T., 1979. "An intertemporal asset pricing model with stochastic consumption and investment opportunities," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 265-296, September.
  2. Merton, Robert C, 1973. "An Intertemporal Capital Asset Pricing Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 41(5), pages 867-87, September.
  3. Robert J. Hodrick & Sanjay Srivastava, 1983. "An Investigation of Risk and Return in Forward Foreign Exchange," NBER Working Papers 1180, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Solnik, Bruno H., 1974. "An equilibrium model of the international capital market," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 500-524, August.
  5. John F. O. Bilson, 1981. "The "Speculative Efficiency" Hypothesis," NBER Working Papers 0474, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Ross, Stephen A., 1976. "The arbitrage theory of capital asset pricing," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 341-360, December.
  7. Michael R. Darby, 1983. "Movements in Purchasing Power Parity: The Short and Long Runs," NBER Chapters, in: The International Transmission of Inflation, pages 462-477 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Shanken, Jay, 1982. " The Arbitrage Pricing Theory: Is It Testable?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 37(5), pages 1129-40, December.
  9. Cho, D Chinhyung & Eun, Cheol S & Senbet, Lemma W, 1986. " International Arbitrage Pricing Theory: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 41(2), pages 313-29, June.
  10. Grauer, Frederick L. A. & Litzenberger, Robert H. & Stehle, Richard E., 1976. "Sharing rules and equilibrium in an international capital market under uncertainty," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(3), pages 233-256, June.
  11. Dhrymes, Phoebus J & Friend, Irwin & Gultekin, N Bulent, 1984. " A Critical Reexamination of the Empirical Evidence on the Arbitrage Pricing Theory," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 39(2), pages 323-46, June.
  12. Adler, Michael & Dumas, Bernard, 1983. " International Portfolio Choice and Corporation Finance: A Synthesis," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 38(3), pages 925-84, June.
  13. Hodrick, Robert J., 1981. "International asset pricing with time-varying risk premia," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(4), pages 573-587, November.
  14. Cornell, Bradford, 1977. "Spot rates, forward rates and exchange market efficiency," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 55-65, August.
  15. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1982. "Interest rates and currency prices in a two-country world," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 335-359.
  16. Stulz, Rene M, 1981. "On the Effects of Barriers to International Investment," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 36(4), pages 923-34, September.
  17. Korajczyk, Robert A, 1985. "The Pricing of Forward Contracts for Foreign Exchange," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 93(2), pages 346-68, April.
  18. Dybvig, Philip H & Ross, Stephen A, 1985. " Yes, the APT Is Testable," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(4), pages 1173-88, September.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Demirguc-Kunt, Asli & Levine, Ross, 1995. "Stock market development and financial intermediaries : stylized facts," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1462, The World Bank.
  2. Korajczyk, Robert A., 1995. "A measure of stock market integration for developed and emerging markets," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1482, The World Bank.
  3. Mika Vaihekoski, 2000. "Unconditional international asset pricing models: empirical tests," Finnish Economic Papers, Finnish Economic Association, vol. 13(2), pages 71-88, Autumn.
  4. Ng, David T.C., 2012. "The International CAPM When Expected Returns Are Time-Varying," Working Papers 127283, Cornell University, Department of Applied Economics and Management.
  5. Levine, Ross, 1989. "The pricing of forward exchange rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 163-179, June.
  6. Bernard Dumas, 1993. "Partial- Vs. General-Equilibrium Models of the International Capital Market," NBER Working Papers 4446, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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