Foreign Currency Futures
AbstractThe theoretical nature of risk premiums in foreign currency futures markets is derived and studied empirically. Estimation problems encountered in using futures data are discussed. Since forward rates and futures prices are demonstrated to be approximately equal, and because risk premiums in forward markets are highly variable, consistency of the data requires time variation in daily risk premiums in the futures market. Unbiasedness of daily futures prices as predictors of the following day's futures price is rejected for all currencies. Reconciliation of daily and monthly data requires positive serial correlation in daily risk premiums.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 1743.
Date of creation: Oct 1985
Date of revision:
Note: ITI IFM
Contact details of provider:
Postal: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.
Web page: http://www.nber.org
More information through EDIRC
Other versions of this item:
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Cornell, Bradford & Reinganum, Marc R, 1981. "Forward and Futures Prices: Evidence from the Foreign Exchange Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 36(5), pages 1035-45, December.
- Korajczyk, Robert A, 1985. "The Pricing of Forward Contracts for Foreign Exchange," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 93(2), pages 346-68, April.
- Townsend, Robert M., 1987. "Asset-return anomalies in a monetary economy," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 219-247, April.
- French, Kenneth R., 1983. "A comparison of futures and forward prices," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 311-342, November.
- Hansen, Lars Peter & Hodrick, Robert J, 1980. "Forward Exchange Rates as Optimal Predictors of Future Spot Rates: An Econometric Analysis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(5), pages 829-53, October.
- Bilson, John F O, 1981.
"The "Speculative Efficiency" Hypothesis,"
The Journal of Business,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 54(3), pages 435-51, July.
- Cumby, Robert E. & Huizinga, John & Obstfeld, Maurice, 1983.
"Two-step two-stage least squares estimation in models with rational expectations,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 333-355, April.
- Maurice Obstfeld & Robert E. Cumby & John Huizinga, 1983. "Two-Step Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation in Models with Rational Expectations," NBER Technical Working Papers 0011, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Richard, Scott F. & Sundaresan, M., 1981. "A continuous time equilibrium model of forward prices and futures prices in a multigood economy," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 347-371, December.
- Hsieh, David A., 1984. "Tests of rational expectations and no risk premium in forward exchange markets," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1-2), pages 173-184, August.
- Cox, John C. & Ingersoll, Jonathan Jr. & Ross, Stephen A., 1981. "The relation between forward prices and futures prices," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 321-346, December.
- Cumby, Robert E & Obstfeld, Maurice, 1981. "A Note on Exchange-Rate Expectations and Nominal Interest Differentials: A Test of the Fisher Hypothesis," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 36(3), pages 697-703, June.
- Robert J. Hodrick & Sanjay Srivastava, 1983.
"An Investigation of Risk and Return in Forward Foreign Exchange,"
NBER Working Papers
1180, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Hodrick, Robert J. & Srivastava, Sanjay, 1984. "An investigation of risk and return in forward foreign exchange," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 5-29, April.
- Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-54, July.
- Lucas, Robert Jr, 1976. "Econometric policy evaluation: A critique," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 19-46, January.
- Singleton, Kenneth J., 1985. "Testing specifications of economic agents' intertemporal optimum problems in the presence of alternative models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 30(1-2), pages 391-413.
- Frenkel, Jacob A & Levich, Richard M, 1977. "Transaction Costs and Interest Arbitrage: Tranquil versus Turbulent Periods," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(6), pages 1209-26, December.
- Black, Fischer, 1976. "The pricing of commodity contracts," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(1-2), pages 167-179.
- Domowitz, Ian & Hakkio, Craig S., 1985. "Conditional variance and the risk premium in the foreign exchange market," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1-2), pages 47-66, August.
- Hansen, Lars Peter & Singleton, Kenneth J, 1982. "Generalized Instrumental Variables Estimation of Nonlinear Rational Expectations Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(5), pages 1269-86, September.
- Svensson, Lars E. O., 1985. "Currency prices, terms of trade, and interest rates: A general equilibrium asset-pricing cash-in-advance approach," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1-2), pages 17-41, February.
- Bong-Chan, Kho, 1996. "Time-varying risk premia, volatility, and technical trading rule profits: Evidence from foreign currency futures markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 249-290, June.
- Wei, K. C. John & Chiang, Raymond, 2004. "A GMM approach for estimation of volatility and regression models when daily prices are subject to price limits," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 445-461, September.
- Mun, Kyung-Chun & Morgan, George E., 1997. "Cross-hedging foreign exchange rate risks: The case of deposit money banks in emerging Asian countries," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 215-230, June.
- Kerstin Bernoth & Juergen von Hagen & Casper de Vries, 2010.
"The Forward Premium Puzzle and Latent Factors Day by Day,"
DNB Working Papers
246, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
- Bernoth, Kerstin & von Hagen, Jürgen & de Vries, Casper, 2012. "The forward premium puzzle and latent factors day by day," Annual Conference 2012 (Goettingen): New Approaches and Challenges for the Labor Market of the 21st Century 62017, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
- Kerstin Bernoth & Jürgen von Hagen & Casper G. de Vries, 2010. "The Forward Premium Puzzle and Latent Factors Day by Day," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 989, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
- Bernoth, Kerstin & de Vries, Casper G & von Hagen, Jürgen, 2010. "The Forward Premium Puzzle and Latent Factors Day by Day," CEPR Discussion Papers 7772, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Li, Wei & Lam, Kin, 2002. "Optimal market timing strategies under transaction costs," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 97-108, April.
- Martin Cincibuch & David Vavra, 2004. "Testing for the uncovered interest parity using distributions implied by FX options," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2003 16, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
- Wei, Steven X., 2002. "A censored-GARCH model of asset returns with price limits," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 197-223, March.
- Mougoué, Mbodja & Aggarwal, Raj, 2011. "Trading volume and exchange rate volatility: Evidence for the sequential arrival of information hypothesis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(10), pages 2690-2703, October.
- John Barkoulas & Christopher F. Baum, 1996. "Time-Varying Risk Premia in the Foreign Currency Futures Basis," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 281., Boston College Department of Economics.
- Christie-David, Rohan & Chaudhry, Mukesh, 2000. "Currency futures, news releases, and uncertainty resolution," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 11(1-2), pages 109-127.
- Pan, Ming-Shiun & Chan, Kam C. & C.W. Fok, Robert, 1997. "Do currency futures prices follow random walks?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 4(1), pages 1-15, January.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ().
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.