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The international CAPM when expected returns are time-varying

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  • Ng, David T.
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Abstract

This paper derives a dynamic version of the international CAPM. The exchange-rate risk factors and intertemporal hedging factors are derived endogenously in a model that builds upon Campbell (1993). We provide a theoretical foundation for empirical risk factors often used in international asset pricing, including dividend yields, forward premia and, especially, exchange-rate indices. The model nests the standard CAPM, the international CAPM and the dynamic CAPM. Empirically, the model performs quite well in explaining average foreign-exchange and stock market returns in the US, Japan, Germany and the UK, and exchange-risk and intertemporal hedging factors play some role in pricing these assets. However, while derived in a theoretically sound fashion, these new factors are proportional to covariances with the world market portfolio. Hence, for practical purpose, the model does not perform better than the standard CAPM model. We apply the model to explain returns on portfolios of high book-to-market stocks across countries, and ̄nd that the exchange rate and intertemporal hedging factors do not help to predict these returns. Hence, they cannot account for the two-factor model proposed in Fama and French (1998).

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of International Money and Finance.

Volume (Year): 23 (2004)
Issue (Month): 2 (March)
Pages: 189-230

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Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:23:y:2004:i:2:p:189-230

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30443

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Cited by:
  1. John Y. Campbell & Tuomo Vuolteenaho, 2002. "Bad Beta, Good Beta," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1971, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
  2. 1Shieldvie Halim Author_Email: & Aldrin Herwany, & Rayenda Brahmana, 2011. "The Seasonality Of Market Integration: Case Of Indonesian Stock Markets," 2nd International Conference on Business and Economic Research (2nd ICBER 2011) Proceeding 2011-439, Conference Master Resources.
  3. Balvers, Ronald J. & Klein, Alina F., 2014. "Currency risk premia and uncovered interest parity in the International CAPM," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 214-230.
  4. Hui Guo & Christopher J. Neely & Jason Higbee, 2006. "Foreign exchange volatility is priced in equities," Working Papers 2004-029, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  5. Moerman, Gerard A. & van Dijk, Mathijs A., 2010. "Inflation risk and international asset returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 840-855, April.
  6. Tyler Muir & Erkko Etula & Tobias Adrian, 2011. "Broker-Dealer Leverage and the Cross-Section of Stock Returns," 2011 Meeting Papers 1448, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  7. Tobias Adrian & Erkko Etula, 2010. "Funding liquidity risk and the cross-section of stock returns," Staff Reports 464, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

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