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Inflation risk and international asset returns

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  • Moerman, Gerard A.
  • van Dijk, Mathijs A.

Abstract

We show that inflation risk is priced in international asset returns. We analyze inflation risk in a framework that encompasses the International Capital Asset Pricing Model (ICAPM) of Adler and Dumas (1983). In contrast to the extant empirical literature on the ICAPM, we relax the assumption that inflation rates are constant. We estimate and test a conditional version of the model for the G5 countries (France, Germany, Japan, the UK, and the US) over the period 1975-1998 and find evidence of statistically and economically significant prices of inflation risk (in addition to priced nominal exchange rate risk). Our results imply a rejection of the restrictions imposed by the ICAPM. In an extension of our analysis to 2003, we show that even after the termination of nominal exchange rate fluctuations in the euro area in 1999, differences in inflation rates across countries entail non-trivial real exchange rate risk premia.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Banking & Finance.

Volume (Year): 34 (2010)
Issue (Month): 4 (April)
Pages: 840-855

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Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:34:y:2010:i:4:p:840-855

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Keywords: International asset pricing Inflation risk Exchange rate risk;

References

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Cited by:
  1. Gu, Li & Huang, Dayong, 2010. "Sales order backlogs and momentum profits," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(7), pages 1564-1575, July.
  2. Thapa, Chandra & Paudyal, Krishna & Neupane, Suman, 2013. "Access to information and international portfolio allocation," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(7), pages 2255-2267.
  3. Rangel, José Gonzalo, 2011. "Macroeconomic news, announcements, and stock market jump intensity dynamics," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(5), pages 1263-1276, May.
  4. Min, Byoung-Kyu & Kim, Tong Suk, 2012. "Are good-news firms riskier than bad-news firms?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 1528-1535.
  5. Guo, Hui & Savickas, Robert, 2010. "Relation between time-series and cross-sectional effects of idiosyncratic variance on stock returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(7), pages 1637-1649, July.
  6. Álvaro Cartea & Dimitrios Karyampas, 2009. "Volatility and Covariation of Financial Assets: A High-Frequency Analysis," Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance 0913, Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics.
  7. Aggarwal, Raj & Goodell, John W., 2011. "International variations in expected equity premia: Role of financial architecture and governance," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(11), pages 3090-3100, November.
  8. Kim, Dongcheol & Kim, Tong Suk & Min, Byoung-Kyu, 2011. "Future labor income growth and the cross-section of equity returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 67-81, January.
  9. Kodongo, Odongo & Ojah, Kalu, 2014. "The conditional pricing of currency and inflation risks in Africa's equity markets," MPRA Paper 56100, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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