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Measuring and Testing the Impact of News on Volatility

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Author Info
Robert F. Engle
Victor K. Ng

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Abstract

This paper introduces the News Impact Curve to measure how new information is incorporated into volatility estimates. A variety of new and existing ARCH models are compared and estimated with daily Japanese stock return data to determine the shape of the News Impact Curve. New diagnostic tests are presented which emphasize the asymmetry of the volatility response to news. A partially non-parametric ARCH model is introduced to allow the data to estimate this shape. A comparison of this model with the existing models suggests that the best models are one by Glosten Jaganathan and Runkle (GJR) and Nelson's EGARCE. Similar results hold on a pre-crash sample period but are less strong.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 3681.

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Date of creation: Apr 1991
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:3681

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Schwert, G William, 1990. "Stock Volatility and the Crash of '87," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(1), pages 77-102. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Pagan, Adrian R. & Schwert, G. William, 1990. "Alternative models for conditional stock volatility," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1-2), pages 267-290. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Anil K. Bera & Sangkyu Lee & Matthew L. Higgins, 1990. "On the Formulation of A General Structure for Conditional Heteroskedasticity," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series 90-41, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
  4. Bollerslev, Tim & Chou, Ray Y. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1992. "ARCH modeling in finance : A review of the theory and empirical evidence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 5-59. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Tim Bollerslev & Jeffrey M. Wooldridge, 1988. "Quasi-Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Dynamic Models with Time-Varying Covariances," Working papers 505, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
  6. Francis Dieobold, 1986. "Modeling The persistence Of Conditional Variances: A Comment," Econometric Reviews, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 5(1), pages 51-56. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Matthew L. Higgins & Anil K. Bera, 1990. "A Class of Nonlinear Arch Models," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series 90-40, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
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  8. Gourieroux, Christian & Monfort, Alain, 1992. "Qualitative threshold ARCH models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 159-199. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Zakoian, Jean-Michel, 1994. "Threshold heteroskedastic models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 18(5), pages 931-955, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Robert Engle & Tim Bollerslev, 1986. "Modelling the persistence of conditional variances," Econometric Reviews, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 5(1), pages 1-50. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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