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On the Relation between the Expected Value and the Volatility of the Nominal Excess Return on Stocks

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  • Glosten, Lawrence R
  • Jagannathan, Ravi
  • Runkle, David E

Abstract

The authors find support for a negative relation between conditional expected monthly return and conditional variance of monthly return using a GARCH-M model modified by allowing (1) seasonal patterns in volatility, (2) positive and negative innovations to returns having different impacts on conditional volatility, and (3) nominal interest rates to predict conditional variance. Using the modified GARCH-M model, they also show that monthly conditional volatility may not be as persistent as was thought. Positive unanticipated returns appear to result in a downward revision of the conditional volatility, whereas negative unanticipated returns result in an upward revision of conditional volatility. Copyright 1993 by American Finance Association.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by American Finance Association in its journal Journal of Finance.

Volume (Year): 48 (1993)
Issue (Month): 5 (December)
Pages: 1779-1801

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Handle: RePEc:bla:jfinan:v:48:y:1993:i:5:p:1779-1801

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  1. Breen, William & Glosten, Lawrence R & Jagannathan, Ravi, 1989. " Economic Significance of Predictable Variations in Stock Index Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 44(5), pages 1177-89, December.
  2. Andrew B. Abel, 1988. "Stock Prices Under Time-Varying Dividend Risk: An Exact Solution In An Infinite-Horizon General Equilibrium Model," NBER Working Papers 2621, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Gennotte, Gerard & Marsh, Terry A., 1993. "Variations in economic uncertainty and risk premiums on capital assets," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 37(5), pages 1021-1041, June.
  4. Baillie, Richard T & Bollerslev, Tim, 2002. "The Message in Daily Exchange Rates: A Conditional-Variance Tale," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 60-68, January.
  5. Merton, Robert C., 1980. "On estimating the expected return on the market : An exploratory investigation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 323-361, December.
  6. Campbell, John Y, 1993. "Intertemporal Asset Pricing without Consumption Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(3), pages 487-512, June.
  7. Alberto Giovannini & Philippe Jorion, 1988. "The Time-Variation of Risk and Return in the Foreign Exchange and Stock Markets," NBER Working Papers 2573, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Keim, Donald B., 1985. "Dividend yields and stock returns: Implications of abnormal January returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 473-489, September.
  9. Josef Lakonishok, Seymour Smidt, 1988. "Are Seasonal Anomalies Real? A Ninety-Year Perspective," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(4), pages 403-425.
  10. Tim Bollerslev, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," EERI Research Paper Series EERI RP 1986/01, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
  11. Christopher M. Turner & Richard Startz & Charles R. Nelson, 1989. "A Markov Model of Heteroskedasticity, Risk, and Learning in the Stock Market," NBER Working Papers 2818, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Whitney K. Newey & Kenneth D. West, 1986. "A Simple, Positive Semi-Definite, Heteroskedasticity and AutocorrelationConsistent Covariance Matrix," NBER Technical Working Papers 0055, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Nelson, Daniel B, 1991. "Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 347-70, March.
  14. Hamilton, James D. & Susmel, Raul, 1994. "Autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity and changes in regime," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 64(1-2), pages 307-333.
  15. David K. Backus & Allan W. Gregory, 1992. "Theoretical Relations Between Risk Premiums and Conditional Variances," Working Papers 92-18a, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
  16. Chan, K. C. & Karolyi, G. Andrew & Stulz, ReneM., 1992. "Global financial markets and the risk premium on U.S. equity," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 137-167, October.
  17. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
  18. Fama, Eugene F. & Schwert, G. William, 1977. "Asset returns and inflation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 115-146, November.
  19. Harvey, Campbell R., 2001. "The specification of conditional expectations," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 8(5), pages 573-637, December.
  20. Newey, Whitney K, 1985. "Maximum Likelihood Specification Testing and Conditional Moment Tests," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(5), pages 1047-70, September.
  21. French, Kenneth R. & Schwert, G. William & Stambaugh, Robert F., 1987. "Expected stock returns and volatility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 3-29, September.
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