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Dividend Yields and Stock Returns: Implications of Abnormal January Returns

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Donald B. Keim

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Abstract

This study examines the empirical relation between stock returns and (long-run) dividend yields. The findings show that much of the phenomenon is due to a non-linear relation between dividend yields and returns in January. Regression coefficients on dividend yields, which some models predict should be non-zero due to differential taxation of dividends and capital gains, exhibit a significant January seasonal, even when controlling for size. This finding is significant since there are no provisions in the after-tax asset pricing models that predict the tax differential is more important in January than in other months.

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Paper provided by Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research in its series Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers with number 14-85.

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Handle: RePEc:fth:pennfi:14-85

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  1. Antje Henne & Sebastian Ostrowski & Peter Reichling, 2007. "Dividend Yield and Stability versus Performance at the German Stock Market," FEMM Working Papers 07017, Otto-von-Guericke University Magdeburg, Faculty of Economics and Management. [Downloadable!]
  2. Lawrence R. Glosten & Ravi Jagannathan & David E. Runkle, 1993. "On the relation between the expected value and the volatility of the nominal excess return on stocks," Staff Report 157, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Greg Filbeck, Sue Visscher, 1997. "Dividend yield strategies in the British stock market," European Journal of Finance, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 3(4), pages 277-289, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Tim Jenkinson & Leonie Bell, 2000. "New Evidence of the Impact of Dividend Taxation and on the Identity of the Marginal Investor," Economics Series Working Papers 024, University of Oxford, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Michael E. Drew & Tony Naughton & Madhu Veeraraghavan, 2003. "Is Idiosyncratic Volatility Priced? Evidence from the Shanghai Stock Exchange," School of Economics and Finance Discussion Papers and Working Papers Series 138, School of Economics and Finance, Queensland University of Technology. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Fernandez, Pablo, 2004. "Are calculated betas good for anything?," IESE Research Papers D/555, IESE Business School. [Downloadable!]
  7. Arnold L. Redman & Herman Manakyan & Kartono Liano, 1997. "Real Estate Investment Trusts and Calendar Anomalies," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 14(1), pages 19-28. [Downloadable!]
  8. Kee Ho Chung & Chong Soo Pyun, 1989. "The Effects Of Risk, Inflation And Dividend Yield On Common Stock Returns: The Case Of Korea," International Economic Journal, Korean International Economic Association, vol. 3(4), pages 69-78, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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This page was last updated on 2009-11-20.


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