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Volatility puzzles: a unified framework for gauging return-volatility regressions

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Author Info
Tim Bollerslev
Hao Zhou

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Abstract

This paper provides a simple unified framework for assessing the empirical linkages between returns and realized and implied volatilities. First, we show that whereas the volatility feedback effect as measured by the sign of the correlation between contemporaneous return and realized volatility depends importantly on the underlying structural model parameters, the correlation between return and implied volatility is unambiguously positive for all reasonable parameter configurations. Second, the lagged return-volatility asymmetry, or the leverage effect, is always stronger for implied than realized volatility. Third, implied volatilities generally provide downward biased forecasts of subsequent realized volatilities. Our results help explain previous findings reported in the extant empirical literature, and is further corroborated by new estimation results for a sample of monthly returns and implied and realized volatilities for the aggregate S&P market index.

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Paper provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) in its series Finance and Economics Discussion Series with number 2003-40.

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Date of creation: 2003
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2003-40

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Keywords: Financial markets;

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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Hui Guo & Christopher J. Neely & Jason Higbee, 2006. "Foreign exchange volatility is priced in equities," Working Papers 2004-029, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
  2. Olli Castrén & Stefano Mazzotta, 2005. "Foreign exchange option and returns based correlation forecasts - evaluation and two applications," Working Paper Series 447, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  3. Peter Christoffersen & Stefano Mazzotta, 2004. "The information content of over-the-counter currency options," Working Paper Series 366, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Xibin Zhang & Maxwell L. King, 2004. "Box-Cox Stochastic Volatility Models with Heavy-Tails and Correlated Errors," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 26/04, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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