Stock Returns, Asymmetric Volatility, Risk Aversion, And Business Cycle: Some New Evidence
Abstract"We study how three interrelated phenomena-excess stock returns and risk relation, risk aversion, and asymmetric volatility movement-change over business cycles. Using an asymmetric generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity in mean model and a Markov switching model, we find that excess stock return increases and asymmetric volatility movement is weakened during boom periods. This suggests that investors become more risk-averse during boom periods (i.e., procyclical risk aversion), which we confirm using a calibration of a simple equilibrium model". ("JEL "C32, E32, G12) Copyright (c) 2007 Western Economic Association International.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Western Economic Association International in its journal Economic Inquiry.
Volume (Year): 46 (2008)
Issue (Month): 2 (04)
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Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
- E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
- G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
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- Arisoy, Yakup Eser, 2010. "Volatility risk and the value premium: Evidence from the French stock market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 975-983, May.
- Łukasz Kwiatkowski, 2011. "Bayesian Analysis of a Regime Switching In-Mean Effect for the Polish Stock Market," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, CEJEME, CEJEME, vol. 3(4), pages 187-219, December.
- Chang, Kuang-Liang, 2012. "The impacts of regime-switching structures and fat-tailed characteristics on the relationship between inflation and inflation uncertainty," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 523-536.
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