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Stock Returns, Asymmetric Volatility, Risk Aversion, And Business Cycle: Some New Evidence

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  • SEI‐WAN KIM
  • BONG‐SOO LEE

Abstract

We study how three interrelated phenomena—excess stock returns and risk relation, risk aversion, and asymmetric volatility movement—change over business cycles. Using an asymmetric generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity in mean model and a Markov switching model, we find that excess stock return increases and asymmetric volatility movement is weakened during boom periods. This suggests that investors become more risk‐averse during boom periods (i.e., procyclical risk aversion), which we confirm using a calibration of a simple equilibrium model. (JEL C32, E32, G12)

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  • Sei‐Wan Kim & Bong‐Soo Lee, 2008. "Stock Returns, Asymmetric Volatility, Risk Aversion, And Business Cycle: Some New Evidence," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 46(2), pages 131-148, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:ecinqu:v:46:y:2008:i:2:p:131-148
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1465-7295.2007.00066.x
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    2. Nyberg, Henri, 2010. "QR-GARCH-M Model for Risk-Return Tradeoff in U.S. Stock Returns and Business Cycles," MPRA Paper 23724, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Wen, Fenghua & Zhang, Minzhi & Xiao, Jihong & Yue, Wei, 2022. "The impact of oil price shocks on the risk-return relation in the Chinese stock market," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 47(PB).
    4. Young-Min Kim, 2020. "Do Fund Investors Consider Asset Returns? Substitute Relation Among Investment Funds in Korea," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 27(4), pages 521-536, December.
    5. Salvador, Enrique & Floros, Christos & Arago, Vicent, 2014. "Re-examining the risk–return relationship in Europe: Linear or non-linear trade-off?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 60-77.
    6. Ming†Chieh Wang & Feng†Ming Shih, 2013. "Time†Varying World and Regional Integration in Emerging European Equity Markets," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 19(4), pages 703-729, September.
    7. Chien‐Chiang Lee & Chi‐Chuan Lee & Donald Lien, 2019. "Do country risk and financial uncertainty matter for energy commodity futures?," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(3), pages 366-383, March.
    8. Łukasz Kwiatkowski, 2011. "Bayesian Analysis of a Regime Switching In-Mean Effect for the Polish Stock Market," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, vol. 3(4), pages 187-219, December.
    9. Aragó, V. & Barreda-Tarrazona, I. & Breaban, A. & Matallín, J.C. & Salvador, E., 2022. "Market risk aversion under volatility shifts: An experimental study," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 552-568.
    10. Arisoy, Yakup Eser, 2010. "Volatility risk and the value premium: Evidence from the French stock market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 975-983, May.
    11. Chang, Kuang-Liang, 2016. "Does the return-state-varying relationship between risk and return matter in modeling the time series process of stock return?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 72-87.
    12. Liu, Xiaochun, 2017. "Unfolded risk-return trade-offs and links to Macroeconomic Dynamics," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 1-19.
    13. Kim, Sei-Wan & Lee, Bong-Soo & Kim, Young-Min, 2014. "Who mimics whom in the equity fund market? Evidence from the Korean equity fund market," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 199-218.
    14. Shoka Hayaki, 2024. "The Impact of Individual Loss Aversion on Market Risk-Return Trade-off: A Non-linear Approach," Discussion Paper Series DP2024-05, Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration, Kobe University.
    15. Wu, Shue-Jen & Lee, Wei-Ming, 2015. "Intertemporal risk–return relationships in bull and bear markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 308-325.
    16. Cotter, John & Salvador, Enrique, 2022. "The non-linear trade-off between return and risk and its determinants," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 100-132.
    17. Viorica Chirila & Ciprian Chirila, 2014. "The Use of Risk and Return for Testing the Stability of Stock Markets," Acta Universitatis Danubius. OEconomica, Danubius University of Galati, issue 10(2), pages 182-192, April.
    18. Tan, Zhengxun & Xiao, Binuo & Huang, Yilong & Zhou, Li, 2021. "Value at risk and return in Chinese and the US stock markets: Double long memory and fractional cointegration," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
    19. Chang, Kuang-Liang, 2012. "The impacts of regime-switching structures and fat-tailed characteristics on the relationship between inflation and inflation uncertainty," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 523-536.
    20. John Cotter & Enrique Salvador, 2014. "The non-linear trade-off between return and risk: a regime-switching multi-factor framework," Papers 1410.6005, arXiv.org.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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