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Stock Prices Under Time-Varying Dividend Risk: An Exact Solution In An Infinite-Horizon General Equilibrium Model

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Andrew B. Abel

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Abstract

The effects on asset prices of changes in risk are studied in a general equilibrium model in which the conditional risk evolves stochastically over time. The savings decisions of consumers take account of the fact that conditional risk is a serially correlated random variable. By restricting the specification of consumers' preferences and the stochastic specification of dividends, it is possible to obtain an exact solution for the prices of the aggregate stock and riskless one-period bonds. An increase in the conditional risk reduces the stock price if and only if the elasticity marginal utility is less than one.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 2621.

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Date of creation: Oct 1989
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Publication status: published as "Stock Prices Under Time-Varying Dividend Risk." From Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol. 22, No. 3, pp. 375-393, (November 1988).
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:2621

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  1. Hodrick, Robert J., 1989. "Risk, uncertainty, and exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 433-459, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. French, Kenneth R. & Schwert, G. William & Stambaugh, Robert F., 1987. "Expected stock returns and volatility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 3-29, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Pindyck, Robert S, 1984. "Risk, Inflation, and the Stock Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 74(3), pages 335-51, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Mehra, Rajnish & Prescott, Edward C., 1985. "The equity premium: A puzzle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 145-161, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Poterba, James M & Summers, Lawrence H, 1986. "The Persistence of Volatility and Stock Market Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(5), pages 1142-51, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. LeRoy, Stephen F & LaCivita, C J, 1981. "Risk Aversion and the Dispersion of Asset Prices," Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 54(4), pages 535-47, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1978. "Asset Prices in an Exchange Economy," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1429-45, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Michener, Ronald W, 1982. "Variance Bounds in a Simple Model of Asset Pricing," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(1), pages 166-75, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Robert B. Barsky, 1986. "Why Don't the Prices of Stocks and Bonds Move Together?," NBER Working Papers 2047, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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