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Risk, uncertainty, and asset prices

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Author Info
Bekaert, Geert
Engstrom, Eric
Xing, Yuhang

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Abstract

We identify the relative importance of changes in the conditional variance of fundamentals (which we call "uncertainty") and changes in risk aversion in the determination of the term structure, equity prices, and risk premiums. Theoretically, we introduce persistent time-varying uncertainty about the fundamentals in an external habit model. The model matches the dynamics of dividend and consumption growth, including their volatility dynamics and many salient asset market phenomena. While the variation in price-dividend ratios and the equity risk premium is primarily driven by risk aversion, uncertainty plays a large role in the term structure and is the driver of countercyclical volatility of asset returns.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Financial Economics.

Volume (Year): 91 (2009)
Issue (Month): 1 (January)
Pages: 59-82
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Handle: RePEc:eee:jfinec:v:91:y:2009:i:1:p:59-82

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505576

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Keywords: Equity premium Economic uncertainty Stochastic risk aversion Time variation in risk and return Excess volatility External habit Term structure Heteroskedasticity;

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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  2. Newey, Whitney K & West, Kenneth D, 1987. "A Simple, Positive Semi-definite, Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(3), pages 703-08, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Naik, Vasanttilak, 1994. "Asset Prices in Dynamic Production Economies with Time-Varying Risk," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 7(4), pages 781-801. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Campbell, John Y. & Hentschel, Ludger, 1992. "No news is good news *1: An asymmetric model of changing volatility in stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 281-318, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Hanno N. Lustig & Stijn G. Van Nieuwerburgh, 2005. "Housing Collateral, Consumption Insurance, and Risk Premia: An Empirical Perspective," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(3), pages 1167-1219, 06. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Andrew Ang & Geert Bekaert, 2004. "The term structure of real rates and expected inflation," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar. [Downloadable!]
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  8. French, Kenneth R. & Schwert, G. William & Stambaugh, Robert F., 1987. "Expected stock returns and volatility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 3-29, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Ravi Bansal & Robert F. Dittmar & Christian T. Lundblad, 2005. "Consumption, Dividends, and the Cross Section of Equity Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(4), pages 1639-1672, 08. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  17. Heaton, John, 1995. "An Empirical Investigation of Asset Pricing with Temporally Dependent Preference Specifications," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 63(3), pages 681-717, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  26. Bekaert, Geert & Wu, Guojun, 2000. "Asymmetric Volatility and Risk in Equity Markets," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 13(1), pages 1-42.
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  32. Kandel, Shmuel & Stambaugh, Robert F, 1990. "Expectations and Volatility of Consumption and Asset Returns," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(2), pages 207-32. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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    Other versions:
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Geert Bekaert & Marie Hoerova & Martin Scheicher, 2009. "What Do Asset Prices Have to Say About Risk Appetite and Uncertainty?," Working Paper Series 1037, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  2. George M. Constantinides & Anisha Ghosh, 2008. "Asset Pricing Tests with Long Run Risks in Consumption Growth," NBER Working Papers 14543, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Hanno Lustig & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh & Adrien Verdelhan, 2008. "The Wealth-Consumption Ratio," NBER Working Papers 13896, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Bank for International Settlements, 2006. "The recent behaviour of financial market volatility," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 29, 11. [Downloadable!]
  5. Lieven Baele & Geert Bekaert & Koen Inghelbrecht, 2007. "The determinants of stock and bond return comovements," Research series 200711-27, National Bank of Belgium. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Tim Bollerslev & Natalia Sizova & George Tauchen, 2009. "Volatility in Equilibrium: Asymmetries and Dynamic Dependencies," CREATES Research Papers 2009-05, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus. [Downloadable!]
  7. Tim Bollerslev & Tzuo Hao & George Tauchen, 2008. "Expected Stock Returns and Variance Risk Premia," CREATES Research Papers 2008-48, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Møller, Stig Vinther, 2008. "Habit persistence: Explaining cross-sectional variation in returns and time-varying expected returns," Finance Research Group Working Papers F-2008-04, University of Aarhus, Aarhus School of Business, Department of Business Studies. [Downloadable!]
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