Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Stock and Bond Returns with Moody Investors

Contents:

Author Info

  • Bekaert, Geert
  • Engstrom, Eric
  • Grenadier, Steve

Abstract

We present a tractable, linear model for the simultaneous pricing of stock and bond returns that incorporates stochastic risk aversion. In this model, analytic solutions for endogenous stock and bond prices and returns are readily calculated. After estimating the parameters of the model by GMM, we investigate a series of classic puzzles of the empirical asset pricing literature. In particular, our model is shown to jointly accommodate the mean and volatility of equity and long-term bond risk premia as well as salient features of the nominal short rate, the dividend yield, and the term spread. Also, the model matches the evidence for predictability of excess stock and bond returns. The stock-bond return correlation implied by the model is, however, somewhat higher than in the data.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.cepr.org/pubs/dps/DP4501.asp
Download Restriction: CEPR Discussion Papers are free to download for our researchers, subscribers and members. If you fall into one of these categories but have trouble downloading our papers, please contact us at subscribers@cepr.org

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 4501.

as in new window
Length:
Date of creation: Jul 2004
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:4501

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Centre for Economic Policy Research, 77 Bastwick Street, London EC1V 3PZ.
Phone: 44 - 20 - 7183 8801
Fax: 44 - 20 - 7183 8820

Order Information:
Email:

Related research

Keywords: empirical asset pricing; macroeconomic factors; stock bond correlation;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Cochrane, John H. & Campbell, John, 1999. "By Force of Habit: A Consumption-Based Explanation of Aggregate Stock Market Behavior," Scholarly Articles 3119444, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  2. N. Gregory Mankiw & Stephen P. Zeldes, 1990. "The Consumption of Stockholders and Non-Stockholders," NBER Working Papers 3402, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller, 1986. "The Dividend-Price Ratio and Expectations of Future Dividends and Discount Factors," NBER Working Papers 2100, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Bekaert, G.R.J. & Hodrick, R. & Marshall, D., 1997. "The implications of first-order risk aversion for asset market risk premiums," Discussion Paper, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research 1997-07, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  5. Fama, Eugene F. & Schwert, G. William, 1977. "Asset returns and inflation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 115-146, November.
  6. Andrew Ang & Geert Bekaert, 2001. "Stock Return Predictability: Is it There?," NBER Working Papers 8207, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. John Y. Campbell, 1992. "Intertemporal Asset Pricing Without Consumption Data," NBER Working Papers 3989, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Ravi Bansal & Robert F. Dittmar & Christian T. Lundblad, 2005. "Consumption, Dividends, and the Cross Section of Equity Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, American Finance Association, vol. 60(4), pages 1639-1672, 08.
  9. Bekaert, Geert, 1996. "The Time Variation of Risk and Return in Foreign Exchange Markets: A General Equilibrium Perspective," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 9(2), pages 427-70.
  10. Lettau, Martin & Ludvigson, Sydney C., 2005. "Expected returns and expected dividend growth," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 76(3), pages 583-626, June.
  11. Hanno N. Lustig & Stijn G. Van Nieuwerburgh, 2005. "Housing Collateral, Consumption Insurance, and Risk Premia: An Empirical Perspective," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, American Finance Association, vol. 60(3), pages 1167-1219, 06.
  12. Pascal St-Amour & Stephen Gordon, 2000. "A Preference Regime Model of Bull and Bear Markets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(4), pages 1019-1033, September.
  13. Philippe Weil, 1989. "The Equity Premium Puzzle and the Riskfree Rate Puzzle," NBER Working Papers 2829, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Ammer, John & Campbell, John, 1993. "What Moves the Stock and Bond Markets? A Variance Decomposition for Long-Term Asset Returns," Scholarly Articles 3382857, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  15. Lettau, Martin & Wachter, Jessica, 2005. "Why is Long-Horizon Equity Less Risky? A Duration-based Explanation of the Value Premium," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers 4921, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  16. Ravi Bansal & Amir Yaron, 2004. "Risks for the Long Run: A Potential Resolution of Asset Pricing Puzzles," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, American Finance Association, vol. 59(4), pages 1481-1509, 08.
  17. Gordon S. & St-Amour P., 2004. "Asset Returns and State-Dependent Risk Preferences," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 22, pages 241-252, July.
  18. Wachter, Jessica A., 2006. "A consumption-based model of the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 79(2), pages 365-399, February.
  19. Robert J. Shiller & Andrea E. Beltratti, 1990. "Stock Prices and Bond Yields: Can Their Comovements Be Explained in Terms of Present Value Models?," NBER Working Papers 3464, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  20. Harry Mamaysky, 2002. "Market Prices of Risk and Return Predictability in a Joint Stock-Bond Pricing Model," Yale School of Management Working Papers, Yale School of Management ysm297, Yale School of Management, revised 01 Oct 2002.
  21. Bekaert, Geert & Engstrom, Eric & Xing, Yuhang, 2009. "Risk, uncertainty, and asset prices," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 91(1), pages 59-82, January.
  22. Evans, G B A & Savin, N E, 1984. "Testing for Unit Roots: 2," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 52(5), pages 1241-69, September.
  23. Angelo Melino & Alan X. Yang, 2003. "State Dependent Preferences Can Explain the Equity Premium Puzzle," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 6(4), pages 806-830, October.
  24. Brandt, Michael W. & Wang, Kevin Q., 2003. "Time-varying risk aversion and unexpected inflation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 50(7), pages 1457-1498, October.
  25. Bekaert, Geert & Hodrick, Robert J. & Marshall, David A., 2001. "Peso problem explanations for term structure anomalies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 241-270, October.
  26. Andrew B. Abel, . "Asset Prices Under Habit Formation and Catching Up With the Jones," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research 01-90, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
  27. Monika Piazzesi & Martin Schneider & Selale Tuzel, 2004. "Housing, Consumption and Asset Pricing," 2004 Meeting Papers 357c, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  28. John H. Cochrane & Lars Peter Hansen, 1992. "Asset Pricing Explorations for Macroeconomics," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1992, Volume 7, pages 115-182 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  29. Campbell, John, 1990. "Measuring the Persistence of Expected Returns," Scholarly Articles 3207696, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  30. Sun, Tong-sheng, 1992. "Real and Nominal Interest Rates: A Discrete-Time Model and Its Continuous-Time Limit," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(4), pages 581-611.
  31. Andrea Buraschi & Alexei Jiltsov, 2007. "Habit Formation and Macroeconomic Models of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, American Finance Association, vol. 62(6), pages 3009-3063, December.
  32. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1989. "Business conditions and expected returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 23-49, November.
  33. Lars Peter Hansen & Ravi Jagannathan, 1990. "Implications of security market data for models of dynamic economies," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 29, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  34. Brock, William A., 1980. "Asset Prices in a Production Economy," Working Papers, California Institute of Technology, Division of the Humanities and Social Sciences 275, California Institute of Technology, Division of the Humanities and Social Sciences.
  35. Kumar, Manmohan S & Persaud, Avinash, 2002. "Pure Contagion and Investors' Shifting Risk Appetite: Analytical Issues and Empirical Evidence," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 5(3), pages 401-36, Winter.
  36. Yacine Ait-Sahalia & Jonathan A. Parker & Motohiro Yogo, 2001. "Luxury Goods and the Equity Premium," NBER Working Papers 8417, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  37. repec:rus:hseeco:94022 is not listed on IDEAS
  38. Andrew B. Abel, 1998. "Risk Premia and Term Premia in General Equilibrium," NBER Working Papers 6683, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  39. Qiang Dai & Kenneth J. Singleton, 2000. "Specification Analysis of Affine Term Structure Models," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, American Finance Association, vol. 55(5), pages 1943-1978, October.
  40. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1978. "Asset Prices in an Exchange Economy," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1429-45, November.
  41. Cochrane, John H, 1992. "Explaining the Variance of Price-Dividend Ratios," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(2), pages 243-80.
  42. Mehra, Rajnish & Prescott, Edward C., 1985. "The equity premium: A puzzle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 145-161, March.
  43. Cox, John C & Ingersoll, Jonathan E, Jr & Ross, Stephen A, 1985. "A Theory of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 53(2), pages 385-407, March.
  44. John Y. Campbell & Motohiro Yogo, 2002. "Efficient Tests of Stock Return Predictability," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1972, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
  45. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-54, July.
  46. Lior Menzly & Tano Santos & Pietro Veronesi, 2004. "Understanding Predictability," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, University of Chicago Press, vol. 112(1), pages 1-47, February.
  47. Whitney K. Newey & Kenneth D. West, 1986. "A Simple, Positive Semi-Definite, Heteroskedasticity and AutocorrelationConsistent Covariance Matrix," NBER Technical Working Papers 0055, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  48. Constantinides, George M, 1992. "A Theory of the Nominal Term Structure of Interest Rates," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(4), pages 531-52.
  49. Ang, Andrew & Bekaert, Geert, 2004. "The Term Structure of Real Rates and Expected Inflation," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers 4518, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  50. Campbell, John Y & Shiller, Robert J, 1991. "Yield Spreads and Interest Rate Movements: A Bird's Eye View," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(3), pages 495-514, May.
  51. Heaton, John, 1995. "An Empirical Investigation of Asset Pricing with Temporally Dependent Preference Specifications," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 63(3), pages 681-717, May.
  52. Tano Santos & Pietro Veronesi, 2006. "Labor Income and Predictable Stock Returns," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 19(1), pages 1-44.
  53. Bakshi, Gurdip S. & Zhiwu, Chen, 1997. "An alternative valuation model for contingent claims," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 123-165, April.
  54. Bansal, Ravi & Lundblad, Christian, 2002. "Market efficiency, asset returns, and the size of the risk premium in global equity markets," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 109(2), pages 195-237, August.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
This item has more than 25 citations. To prevent cluttering this page, these citations are listed on a separate page.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:4501. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ().

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.