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State Dependent Preferences Can Explain the Equity Premium Puzzle

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Author Info
Angelo Melino
Alan X. Yang

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Abstract

We introduce state dependent recursive preferences into the Mehra-Prescott economy. We show that such preferences can match the historical first two moments of the returns on equity and the risk free rate. Other authors have reported similar results using state dependent expected utility preferences. These authors have tended to emphasize the importance of countercyclical risk aversion in explaining the equity premium puzzle. We find that countercyclical risk aversion plays an important role but only when combined with modest cyclical variation in intertemporal substitution.

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Paper provided by University of Toronto, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number melino-03-01.

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Length: 34 pages
Date of creation: 11 Jul 2003
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Handle: RePEc:tor:tecipa:melino-03-01

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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  2. Kubler, Felix, 2004. "Is intertemporal choice theory testable?," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1-2), pages 177-189, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Hansen, Lars Peter & Richard, Scott F, 1987. "The Role of Conditioning Information in Deducing Testable," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(3), pages 587-613, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Gordon, Stephen & St-Amour, Pascal, 2003. "Asset Returns and State-Dependent Risk Preferences," Cahiers de recherche 0316, CIRPEE. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Epstein, Larry G & Zin, Stanley E, 1991. "Substitution, Risk Aversion, and the Temporal Behavior of Consumption and Asset Returns: An Empirical Analysis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(2), pages 263-86, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Hansen, Lars Peter & Singleton, Kenneth J, 1983. "Stochastic Consumption, Risk Aversion, and the Temporal Behavior of Asset Returns," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(2), pages 249-65, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Weil, Philippe, 1989. "The equity premium puzzle and the risk-free rate puzzle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 401-421, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1978. "Asset Prices in an Exchange Economy," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1429-45, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Epstein, Larry G. & Zin, Stanley E., 1990. "'First-order' risk aversion and the equity premium puzzle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 387-407, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Epstein, Larry G & Zin, Stanley E, 1989. "Substitution, Risk Aversion, and the Temporal Behavior of Consumption and Asset Returns: A Theoretical Framework," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(4), pages 937-69, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Stephen Gordon & Pascal St-Amour, 2000. "A Preference Regime Model of Bull and Bear Markets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(4), pages 1019-1033, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. John Y. Campbell & John H. Cochrane, 1994. "By Force of Habit: A Consumption-Based Explanation of Aggregate Stock Market Behavior," CRSP working papers 412, Center for Research in Security Prices, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago. [Downloadable!]
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  17. Epstein, Larry G & Melino, Angelo, 1995. "A Revealed Preference Analysis of Asset Pricing under Recursive Utility," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 62(4), pages 597-618, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  18. John Y. Campbell, 1996. "Consumption and the Stock Market: Interpreting International Experience," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1763, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
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  20. Epstein, Larry G. & Zin, Stanley E., 2001. "The independence axiom and asset returns," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 8(5), pages 537-572, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  21. Mehra, Rajnish & Prescott, Edward C., 1985. "The equity premium: A puzzle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 145-161, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  24. John Y. Campbell & John Cochrane, 1999. "Force of Habit: A Consumption-Based Explanation of Aggregate Stock Market Behavior," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 107(2), pages 205-251, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Angelo Melino, 2006. "Measuring the Cost of Economic Fluctuations with Preferences that Rationalize the Equity Premium," Working Papers tecipa-256, University of Toronto, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  2. Pascal St-Amour, 2005. "Direct Preference for Wealth in Aggregate Household Portfolio," Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du Département d'Econométrie et d'Economie politique (DEEP) 05.04, Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, DEEP. [Downloadable!]
  3. Geert Bekaert & Eric Engstrom & Steven R. Grenadier, 2006. "Stock and Bond Returns with Moody Investors," NBER Working Papers 12247, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Raghu Suryanarayanan, 2006. "Implications of Anticipated Regret and Endogenous Beliefs for Equilibrium Asset Prices: A Theoretical Framework," CSEF Working Papers 162, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy. [Downloadable!]
  5. Bertholon, H. & Monfort, A. & Pegoraro, F., 2007. "Pricing and Inference with Mixtures of Conditionally Normal Processes," Documents de Travail 188, Banque de France. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. René Garcia & Richard Luger, 2009. "Risk Aversion, Intertemporal Substitution, and the Term Structure of Interest Rates," CIRANO Working Papers 2009s-20, CIRANO. [Downloadable!]
  7. Pascal St-Amour, 2004. "Ratchet vs Blasé Investors and Asset Markets," CIRANO Working Papers 2004s-11, CIRANO. [Downloadable!]
  8. Felix Kubler & Karl Schmedders, 2007. "Non-parametric counterfactual analysis in dynamic general equilibrium," PIER Working Paper Archive 07-027, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. Ricardo M. Sousa, 2007. "Wealth Shocks and Risk Aversion," NIPE Working Papers 28/2007, NIPE - Universidade do Minho. [Downloadable!]
  10. Fousseni Chabi-Yo & René Garcia & Eric Renault, 2005. "The Stochastic Discount Factor: Extending the Volatility Bound and a New Approach to Portfolio Selection with Higher-Order Moments," Working Papers 05-2, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  11. Fousseni Chabi-Yo & René Garcia & Eric Renault, 2005. "State Dependence in Fundamentals and Preferences Explains Risk-Aversion Puzzle," Working Papers 05-9, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  12. Miroslav Misina, 2005. "Risk Perceptions and Attitudes," Working Papers 05-17, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  13. Bryan R. Routledge & Stanley E. Zin, 2003. "Generalized Disappointment Aversion and Asset Prices," NBER Working Papers 10107, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Jaime A. Londo\~no, 2006. "State Dependent Utility," Quantitative Finance Papers math/0603316, arXiv.org. [Downloadable!]
  15. Antonio Falato, 2008. "Happiness maintenance and asset prices," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2008-19, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  16. Casey B. Mulligan, 2004. "Robust Aggregate Implications of Stochastic Discount Factor Volatility," NBER Working Papers 10210, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Antonio Falato, 2003. "Happiness Maintenance and Asset Prices," Finance 0310003, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  18. Lettau, Martin & Ludvigson, Sydney, 2005. "Euler Equation Errors," CEPR Discussion Papers 4922, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
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