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Predictable Returns and Asset Allocation: Should a Skeptical Investor Time the Market?

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Author Info
Jessica A. Wachter
Missaka Warusawitharana

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Abstract

Are excess returns predictable and if so, what does this mean for investors? Previous literature has tended toward two polar viewpoints: that predictability is useful only if the statistical evidence for it is incontrovertible, or that predictability should affect portfolio choice, even if the evidence is weak according to conventional measures. This paper models an intermediate view: that both data and theory are useful for decision-making. We investigate optimal portfolio choice for an investor who is skeptical about the amount of predictability in the data. Skepticism is modeled as an informative prior over the R^2 of the predictive regression. We find that the evidence is sufficient to convince even an investor with a highly skeptical prior to vary his portfolio on the basis of the dividend-price ratio and the yield spread. The resulting weights are less volatile and deliver superior out-of-sample performance as compared to the weights implied by an entirely model-based or data-based view.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 13165.

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Date of creation: Jun 2007
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:13165

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General - - - Bayesian Analysis
C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions
G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions

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  1. Jurek, Jakub W & Viceira, Luis M, 2006. "Optimal Value and Growth Tilts in Long-Horizon Portfolios," CEPR Discussion Papers 5773, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Pástor, Luboš & Stambaugh, Robert F, 2007. "Predictive Systems: Living with Imperfect Predictors," CEPR Discussion Papers 6076, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Didier, Tatiana & Lowenkron, Alexandre, 2009. "The current account as a dynamic portfolio choice problem," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4861, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  4. Gianni Amisano & Roberto Savona, 2008. "Imperfect predictability and mutual fund dynamics. How managers use predictors in changing systematic risk," Working Paper Series 881, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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