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The Dog That Did Not Bark: A Defense of Return Predictability

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John H. Cochrane

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Abstract

To question the statistical significance of return predictability, we cannot specify a null that simply turns off that predictability, leaving dividend growth predictability at its essentially zero sample value. If neither returns nor dividend growth are predictable, then the dividend-price ratio is a constant. If the null turns off return predictability, it must turn on the predictability of dividend growth, and then confront the evidence against such predictability in the data. I find that the absence of dividend growth predictability gives much stronger statistical evidence against the null, with roughly 1-2% probability values, than does the presence of return predictability, which only gives about 20% probability values. I argue that tests based on long-run return and dividend growth regressions provide the cleanest and most interpretable evidence on return predictability, again delivering about 1-2% probability values against the hypothesis that returns are unpredictable. I show that Goyal and Welch's (2005) finding of poor out-of-sample R2 does not reject return forecastability. Out-of-sample R2 is poor even if all dividend yield variation comes from time-varying expected returns.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 12026.

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Date of creation: Feb 2006
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:12026

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G0 - Financial Economics - - General
G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets

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  2. Amit Goval & Ivo Welch, 2004. "A Comprehensive Look at the Empirical Performance of Equity Premium Prediction," NBER Working Papers 10483, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Martin Lettau & Sydney Ludvigson, 2003. "Expected Returns and Expected Dividend Growth," NBER Working Papers 9605, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Hodrick, Robert J, 1992. "Dividend Yields and Expected Stock Returns: Alternative Procedures for Inference and Measurement," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(3), pages 357-86. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  21. Shiller, Robert J, 1981. "Do Stock Prices Move Too Much to be Justified by Subsequent Changes in Dividends?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 421-36, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  23. Robert J. Shiller, 1984. "Stock Prices and Social Dynamics," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 719R, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
  24. Cochrane, John H, 1988. "How Big Is the Random Walk in GNP?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(5), pages 893-920, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Schrimpf, Andreas, 2008. "International Stock Return Predictability Under Model Uncertainty," ZEW Discussion Papers 08-048, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
  2. Miguel A. Ferreira & Pedro Santa-Clara, 2008. "Forecasting Stock Market Returns: The Sum of the Parts is More than the Whole," NBER Working Papers 14571, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Pástor, Luboš & Stambaugh, Robert F, 2007. "Predictive Systems: Living with Imperfect Predictors," CEPR Discussion Papers 6076, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Tom Engsted, 2009. "Statistical vs. Economic Significance in Economics and Econometrics: Further comments on McCloskey & Ziliak," CREATES Research Papers 2009-17, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus. [Downloadable!]
  5. Jonathan Fletcher & Patricia Ntozi-Obwale, 2009. "Exploring the Conditional Performance of U.K. Unit Trusts," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer, vol. 36(1), pages 21-44, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Martin Lettau & Jessica A. Wachter, 2009. "The Term Structures of Equity and Interest Rates," NBER Working Papers 14698, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Tom Engsted & Thomas Q. Pedersen, 2009. "The dividend-price ratio does predict dividend growth: International evidence," CREATES Research Papers 2009-36, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus. [Downloadable!]
  8. Tim Bollerslev & Hao Zhou, 2007. "Expected Stock Returns and Variance Risk Premia," CREATES Research Papers 2007-17, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. Whelan, Karl, 2006. "Consumption and Expected Asset Returns without Assumptions About Unobservables," MPRA Paper 5891, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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