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Expected Returns and Expected Dividend Growth

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Author Info
Martin Lettau
Sydney Ludvigson

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Abstract

We investigate a consumption-based present value relation that is a function of future dividend growth. Using data on aggregate consumption and measures of the dividend payments from aggregate wealth, we show that changing forecasts of dividend growth make an important contribution to fluctuations in the U.S. stock market, despite the failure of the dividend-price ratio to uncover such variation. In addition, these dividend forecasts are found to covary with changing forecasts of excess stock returns. The variation in expected dividend growth we uncover is positively correlated with changing forecasts of excess returns and occurs at business cycle frequencies, those ranging from one to six years. Because positively correlated fluctuations in expected dividend growth and expected returns have offsetting affects on the log dividend-price ratio, the results imply that both the market risk-premium and expected dividend growth vary considerably more than what can be revealed using the log dividend-price ratio alone as a predictive variable.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 9605.

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Date of creation: Apr 2003
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:9605

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing
G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 2001. "Disappearing dividends: changing firm characteristics or lower propensity to pay?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 3-43, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. John H. Cochrane, 1997. "Where is the market going? Uncertain facts and novel theories," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Nov, pages 3-37. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1989. "Business conditions and expected returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 23-49, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Anne Vila Wetherilt & Simon Wells, . "Long-horizon equity return predictability: some new evidence for the United Kingdom," Bank of England working papers 244, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
  2. Geert Bekaert & Eric Engstrom & Steven R. Grenadier, 2006. "Stock and Bond Returns with Moody Investors," NBER Working Papers 12247, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. John H. Cochrane, 2006. "The Dog That Did Not Bark: A Defense of Return Predictability," NBER Working Papers 12026, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Stig V. Møller, 2007. "Habit persistence: Explaining cross sectional variation in returns and time-varying expected returns," CREATES Research Papers 2007-07, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus. [Downloadable!]
  5. Lettau, Martin & Wachter, Jessica, 2005. "Why is Long-Horizon Equity Less Risky? A Duration-based Explanation of the Value Premium," CEPR Discussion Papers 4921, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Simon Price & Christoph Schleicher, . "Returns to equity, investment and Q: evidence from the United Kingdom," Bank of England working papers 310, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
  7. Mathias Hoffmann, 2005. "Proprietary Income, Entrepreneurial Risk and the Predictability of U.S. Stock Returns," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 229, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Andrew Vivian, 2005. "The Equity Premium: 101 years of Empirical Evidence from the UK," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2005 92, Money Macro and Finance Research Group. [Downloadable!]
  9. Simon Price, 2004. "UK investment and the return to equity: Q redux," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2004 87, Money Macro and Finance Research Group. [Downloadable!]
  10. Jacob Boudoukh & Matthew Richardson & Robert Whitelaw, 2005. "The Myth of Long-Horizon Predictability," NBER Working Papers 11841, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Hanno Lustig & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh & Adrien Verdelhan, 2008. "The Wealth-Consumption Ratio," NBER Working Papers 13896, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Ravi Bansal & Varoujan Khatachtrian & Amir Yaron, 2002. "Interpretable Asset Markets?," NBER Working Papers 9383, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  13. Wiliam Branch & George W. Evans, 2006. "Asset Return Dynamics and Learning," University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers 2006-14, University of Oregon Economics Department. [Downloadable!]
  14. Lettau, Martin & Ludvigson, Sydney, 2005. "Euler Equation Errors," CEPR Discussion Papers 4922, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  15. Andrew Vivian, 2007. "The Equity Premium: 100 Years of Empirical Evidence from the UK," CRIEFF Discussion Papers 0711, Centre for Research into Industry, Enterprise, Finance and the Firm. [Downloadable!]
  16. Martin Lettau & Jessica Wachter, 2005. "Why is Long-Horizon Equity Less Risky? A Duration-Based Explanation of the Value Premium," NBER Working Papers 11144, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Rangvid, Jesper, 2002. "Output and Expected Returns - a multicountry study," Working Papers 2002-8, Copenhagen Business School, Department of Finance. [Downloadable!]
  18. Martin Lettau & Sydney C. Ludvigson & Jessica A. Wachter, 2004. "The Declining Equity Premium: What Role Does Macroeconomic Risk Play?," NBER Working Papers 10270, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  19. Møller, Stig Vinther, 2008. "Habit persistence: Explaining cross-sectional variation in returns and time-varying expected returns," Finance Research Group Working Papers F-2008-04, University of Aarhus, Aarhus School of Business, Department of Business Studies. [Downloadable!]
  20. Ravi Bansal & A. Ronald Gallant & George Tauchen, 2007. "Rational Pessimism, Rational Exuberance, and Asset Pricing Models," NBER Working Papers 13107, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  21. Renatas Kizys & Peter Spencer, 2007. "Assessing the Relation between Equity Risk Premia and Macroeconomic Volatilities," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 140, Money Macro and Finance Research Group. [Downloadable!]
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