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Expected Stock Returns and Variance Risk Premia

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Author Info
Tim Bollerslev
Tzuo Hao
George Tauchen () (School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus, Denmark and CREATES)

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Abstract

Motivated by the implications from a stylized self-contained general equilibrium model incorporating the effects of time-varying economic uncertainty, we show that the difference between implied and realized variation, or the variance risk premium, is able to explain a non-trivial fraction of the time series variation in post 1990 aggregate stock market returns, with high (low) premia predicting high (low) future returns. Our empirical results depend crucially on the use of “model-free,” as opposed to Black- Scholes, options implied volatilities, along with accurate realized variation measures constructed from high-frequency intraday, as opposed to daily, data. The magnitude of the predictability is particularly strong at the intermediate quarterly return horizon, where it dominates that afforded by other popular predictor variables, like the P/E ratio, the default spread, and the consumption-wealth ratio (CAY).

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Paper provided by School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus in its series CREATES Research Papers with number 2008-48.

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Length: 41
Date of creation: 03 Sep 2008
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Handle: RePEc:aah:create:2008-48

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Related research
Keywords: Equilibrium asset pricing; stochastic volatility; risk neutral expectation; return predictability; option implied volatility; realized volatility; variance risk premium;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions
C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation and Testing
G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing
G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies

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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Francis A. Longstaff & Jun Pan & Lasse H. Pedersen & Kenneth J. Singleton, 2007. "How Sovereign is Sovereign Credit Risk?," NBER Working Papers 13658, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Ole E. Barndorff-Nielsen & Almut E. D. Veraart, 2009. "Stochastic volatility of volatility in continuous time," CREATES Research Papers 2009-25, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus. [Downloadable!]
  3. Ole E. Barndorff-Nielsen & Peter Reinhard Hansen & Asger Lunde & Neil Shephard, 2009. "Multivariate Realised Kernels: Consistent Positive Semi-Definite Estimators of the Covariation of Equity Prices with Noise and Non-Synchronous Trading," Global COE Hi-Stat Discussion Paper Series gd08-037, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Torben G. Andersen & Luca Benzoni, 2008. "Realized volatility," Working Paper Series WP-08-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. [Downloadable!]
  5. Caio Ibsen R. Almeida & José Valentim M. Vicente, 2007. "Identifying Volatility Risk Premium from Fixed Income Asian Options," Working Papers Series 136, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Torben G. Andersen & Oleg Bondarenko, 2007. "Construction and Interpretation of Model-Free Implied Volatility," NBER Working Papers 13449, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  7. Tim Bollerslev & Viktor Todorov, 2009. "Tails, Fears and Risk Premia," CREATES Research Papers 2009-26, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus. [Downloadable!]
  8. Tim Bollerslev & Natalia Sizova & George Tauchen, 2009. "Volatility in Equilibrium: Asymmetries and Dynamic Dependencies," CREATES Research Papers 2009-05, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus. [Downloadable!]
  9. Lieven Baele & Geert Bekaert & Koen Inghelbrecht, 2009. "The Determinants of Stock and Bond Return Comovements," NBER Working Papers 15260, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  10. Ramadorai, Tarun, 2008. "The Secondary Market for Hedge Funds and the Closed-Hedge Fund Premium," CEPR Discussion Papers 6877, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Tobias Adrian & Hyun Song Shin, 2008. "Liquidity and leverage," Staff Reports 328, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
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