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Improving the predictability of real economic activity and asset returns with forward variances inferred from option portfolios

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  • Bakshi, Gurdip
  • Panayotov, George
  • Skoulakis, Georgios
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    Abstract

    This paper presents an option positioning that allows us to infer forward variances from option portfolios. The forward variances we construct from equity index options help to predict (i) growth in measures of real economic activity, (ii) Treasury bill returns, (iii) stock market returns, and (iv) changes in variance swap rates. Our yardstick for measuring predictive ability is both individual and joint parameter statistical significance within a market, as well as across a set of markets.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Financial Economics.

    Volume (Year): 100 (2011)
    Issue (Month): 3 (June)
    Pages: 475-495

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:jfinec:v:100:y:2011:i:3:p:475-495

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    Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505576

    Related research

    Keywords: Predictability Traded market variance Real economic activity Treasury returns Stock market returns Joint predictability;

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    Cited by:
    1. Alejandro Bernales & Massimo Guidolin, 2012. "Can We Forecast the Implied Volatility Surface Dynamics of Equity Options? Predictability and Economic Value Tests," Working Papers 456, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    2. Bruno Feunou & Jean-Sébastien Fontaine & Abderrahim Taamouti & Roméo Tedongap, 2012. "Risk Premium, Variance Premium and the Maturity Structure of Uncertainty," Working Papers 12-11, Bank of Canada.
    3. Marcelle Chauvet & Zeynep Senyuz & Emre Yoldas, 2012. "What does financial volatility tell us about macroeconomic fluctuations?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2012-09, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    4. Hanno Lustig & Nikolai Roussanov & Adrien Verdelhan, 2010. "Countercyclical Currency Risk Premia," NBER Working Papers 16427, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Bakshi, Gurdip & Panayotov, George, 2013. "Predictability of currency carry trades and asset pricing implications," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(1), pages 139-163.
    6. Allan M. Malz, 2013. "Risk-neutral systemic risk indicators," Staff Reports 607, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

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