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The effect of macroeconomic news on beliefs and preferences: Evidence from the options market

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  • Beber, Alessandro
  • Brandt, Michael W.

Abstract

We examine the effect of regularly scheduled macroeconomic announcements on the beliefs and preferences of participants in the U.S. Treasury market by comparing the option-implied state-price density (SPD) of bond prices shortly before and after the announcements. We find that the announcements reduce the uncertainty implicit in the second moment of the SPD regardless of the content of the news. The changes in the higher-order moments, in contrast, depend on whether the news is good or bad for economic prospects. Using a standard model for interest rates to disentangle changes in beliefs and changes in preferences, we demonstrate that our results are consistent with time-varying risk aversion in the spirit of habit formation.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Monetary Economics.

Volume (Year): 53 (2006)
Issue (Month): 8 (November)
Pages: 1997-2039

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Handle: RePEc:eee:moneco:v:53:y:2006:i:8:p:1997-2039

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505566

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References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Vähämaa, Sami, 2004. "Option-implied asymmetries in bond market expectations around monetary policy actions of the ECB," Working Paper Series 0315, European Central Bank.
  2. Kelly, Bryan & Pástor, Luboš & Veronesi, Pietro, 2014. "The Price of Political Uncertainty: Theory and Evidence from the Option Market," CEPR Discussion Papers 9822, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Bakshi, Gurdip & Carr, Peter & Wu, Liuren, 2008. "Stochastic risk premiums, stochastic skewness in currency options, and stochastic discount factors in international economies," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 132-156, January.
  4. Mo, Henry & Wu, Liuren, 2007. "International capital asset pricing: Evidence from options," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 465-498, September.
  5. Anders B. Trolle & Eduardo S. Schwartz, 2010. "An Empirical Analysis of the Swaption Cube," NBER Working Papers 16549, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Alejandro Bernales & Massimo Guidolin, 2012. "Can We Forecast the Implied Volatility Surface Dynamics of Equity Options? Predictability and Economic Value Tests," Working Papers 456, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
  7. Hutchison, Michael & Sushko, Vladyslav, 2013. "Impact of macro-economic surprises on carry trade activity," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 1133-1147.
  8. Vrugt, Evert B., 2009. "U.S. and Japanese macroeconomic news and stock market volatility in Asia-Pacific," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 17(5), pages 611-627, November.
  9. Alessandro Beber & Michael W. Brandt, 2006. "Resolving Macroeconomic Uncertainty in Stock and Bond Markets," NBER Working Papers 12270, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Bakshi, Gurdip & Panayotov, George & Skoulakis, Georgios, 2011. "Improving the predictability of real economic activity and asset returns with forward variances inferred from option portfolios," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(3), pages 475-495, June.

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