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Economic News and Bond Prices: Evidence from the U.S. Treasury Market

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Author Info
Balduzzi, Pierluigi
Elton, Edwin J.
Green, T. Clifton
Abstract

This Paper uses intraday data from the interdealer government bond market to investigate the effects of scheduled macroeconomic announcements on prices, trading volume, and bid-ask spreads. We find that 17 public news releases, as measured by the surprise in the announcced quantity, have a significant impact on the price of the following instruments: a three-month bill, a two-year note, a 10-year, anda 30-year bond. These effects vary significantly according to maturity. Public news can explain a substantial fraction of price volantility in the after math of announcements, and the adjustment to news generally occurs within one minute after the announcement. We document significant and persistent increases in volatility and trading volume after the announcements. Bidask spreads, on the other hand, widen at the timeof the announcements, but then revert to normal values after five to 15 minutes. The implications for yield curve modeling and for the microstructure of bond markets.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Cambridge University Press in its journal Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis.

Volume (Year): 36 (2001)
Issue (Month): 04 (December)
Pages: 523-543
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Handle: RePEc:cup:jfinqa:v:36:y:2001:i:04:p:523-543_00

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  1. Martin D. D. Evans(Georgetown University and NBER) and Richard K. Lyons(U.C. Berkeley and NBER, Haas School of Business), . "How is Macro News Transmitted to Exchange Rates? (December 2003)," Working Papers gueconwpa~05-05-05, Georgetown University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  2. Yongseok Shin & Rachel Glennerster, 2003. "Is Transparency Good for You, and Can the IMF Help?," IMF Working Papers 03/132, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  3. Coffinet, J. & Frappa, S., 2008. "Macroeconomic Surprises and the Inflation Compensation Curve in the Euro Area," Documents de Travail 220, Banque de France. [Downloadable!]
  4. Alessandro Palandri, 2009. "The Effects of Interest Rate Movements on Assets’ Conditional Second Moments," CREATES Research Papers 2009-32, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus. [Downloadable!]
  5. Coluzzi, Chiara & Ginebri, Sergio & Turco, Manuel, 2008. "Measuring and Analyzing the Liquidity of the Italian Treasury Security Wholesale Secondary Market," Economics & Statistics Discussion Papers esdp08044, University of Molise, Dept. SEGeS. [Downloadable!]
  6. Bruce Mizrach & Christopher J. Neely, 2007. "Information shares in the U.S. treasury market," Working Papers 2005-070, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Shaun K. Roache & Marco Rossi, 2009. "The Effects of Economic News on Commodity Prices: Is Gold Just Another Commodity?," IMF Working Papers 09/140, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  8. Magnus Andersson & Lars Jul Hansen & Szabolcs Sebestyén, 2006. "Which news moves the euro area bond market?," Working Paper Series 631, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  9. Nikolas Hautsch & Dieter Hess & Christoph Müller, 2008. "Price Adjustment to News with Uncertain Precision," CFS Working Paper Series 2008/28, Center for Financial Studies. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  10. Robert F. Engle & Jose Gonzalo Rangel, 2005. "The Spline GARCH Model for Unconditional Volatility and its Global Macroeconomic Causes," Working Papers 2005/13, Czech National Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  11. Allan Zebedee & Eric Bentzen & Peter Hansen & Asger Lunde, 2008. "The Greenspan years: an analysis of the magnitude and speed of the equity market response to FOMC announcements," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer, vol. 22(1), pages 3-20, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Goeij, P. de & Marquering, W.A., 2002. "Do Macroeconomic Announcements Cause Asymetric Volatility?," Research Paper ERS-2002-103-F&A Revision, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus Uni. [Downloadable!]
  13. Chen, Kim Heng & Han, Li-Ming, 2006. "Efficiency in Information Processing: A Study of Non-Nearby Currency Futures and Relationships with Nearby Counterparts," Review of Applied Economics, Review of Applied Economics, vol. 2(1). [Downloadable!]
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