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News Arrival, Jump Dynamics, and Volatility Components for Individual Stock Returns

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Author Info
John M. Maheu (Department of Economics, University of Toronto)
Thomas H. McCurdy (Joseph L. Rotman School of Management, University of Toronto)

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Abstract

This paper models components of the return distribution, which are assumed to be directed by a latent news process. The conditional variance of returns is a combination of jumps and smoothly changing components. A heterogeneous Poisson process with a time-varying conditional intensity parameter governs the likelihood of jumps. Unlike typical jump models with stochastic volatility, previous realizations of both jump and normal innovations can feed back asymmetrically into expected volatility. This model improves forecasts of volatility, particularly after large changes in stock returns. We provide empirical evidence of the impact and feedback effects of jump versus normal return innovations, leverage effects, and the time-series dynamics of jump clustering. Copyright 2004 by The American Finance Association.

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Article provided by American Finance Association in its journal The Journal of Finance.

Volume (Year): 59 (2004)
Issue (Month): 2 (04)
Pages: 755-793
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Handle: RePEc:bla:jfinan:v:59:y:2004:i:2:p:755-793

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Jin-Chuan Duan & Peter Ritchken & Zhiqiang Sun, 2006. "Jump starting GARCH: pricing and hedging options with jumps in returns and volatilities," Working Paper 0619, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. [Downloadable!]
  2. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold, 2005. "Roughing it Up: Including Jump Components in the Measurement, Modeling and Forecasting of Return Volatility," NBER Working Papers 11775, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Roel C.A. Oomen, 2004. "Statistical Models for High Frequency Security Prices," Econometric Society 2004 North American Winter Meetings 77, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
  4. Wan-Hsiu Cheng, 2008. "Overestimation in the Traditional GARCH Model During Jump Periods," Economics Bulletin, Economics Bulletin, vol. 3(68), pages 1-20. [Downloadable!]
  5. Laurent E. Calvet & Adlai J. Fisher, 2006. "Multifrequency Jump-Diffusions: An Equilibrium Approach," NBER Working Papers 12797, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  6. Ángel León & Francis Benito & Juan Nave, 2006. "Modeling The Euro Overnight Rate," Working Papers. Serie AD 2006-11, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie). [Downloadable!]
  7. Ravi Bansal & Ivan Shaliastovich, 2009. "Learning and Asset-Price Jumps," NBER Working Papers 14814, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Xin Huang, 2007. "A Reduced Form Framework for Modeling Volatility of Speculative Prices based on Realized Variation Measures," CREATES Research Papers 2007-14, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus. [Downloadable!]
  9. John M Maheu & Thomas H McCurdy, 2007. "Modeling foreign exchange rates with jumps," Working Papers tecipa-279, University of Toronto, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  10. Fulvio Corsi & Davide Pirino & Roberto Renò, 2008. "Volatility forecasting: the jumps do matter," Department of Economics University of Siena 534, Department of Economics, University of Siena. [Downloadable!]
  11. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold,, 2003. "Some Like it Smooth, and Some Like it Rough: Untangling Continuous and Jump Components in Measuring, Modeling, and Forecasting Asset Return Volatility," CFS Working Paper Series 2003/35, Center for Financial Studies. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  12. Ole E. Barndorff-Nielsen & Neil Shephard, 2003. "Power and bipower variation with stochastic volatility and jumps," Economics Papers 2003-W17, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  13. Tim Bollerslev & Viktor Todorov, 2009. "Tails, Fears and Risk Premia," CREATES Research Papers 2009-26, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus. [Downloadable!]
  14. Kin-Yip Ho & Albert K Tsui, 2008. "Volatility Dynamics in Foreign Exchange Rates: Further Evidence from the Malaysian Ringgit and Singapore Dollar," SCAPE Policy Research Working Paper Series 0805, National University of Singapore, Department of Economics, SCAPE. [Downloadable!]
  15. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Per Houmann Frederiksen & Morten Ørregaard Nielsen, 2007. "Continuous-Time Models, Realized Volatilities, and Testable Distributional Implications for Daily Stock Returns," CREATES Research Papers 2007-21, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  16. Jouchi Nakajima, 2008. "EGARCH and Stochastic Volatility: Modeling Jumps and Heavy-tails for Stock Returns," IMES Discussion Paper Series 08-E-23, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan. [Downloadable!]
  17. Peter Christoffersen & Redouane Elkamhi & Bruno Feunou & Kris Jacobs, 2009. "Option Valuation with Conditional Heteroskedasticity and Non-Normality," CREATES Research Papers 2009-33, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus. [Downloadable!]
  18. Peter Christoffersen & Kris Jacobs & Chayawat Ornthanalai & Yintian Wang, 2008. "Option Valuation with Long-run and Short-run Volatility Components," CREATES Research Papers 2008-11, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  19. Chien-Liang Chiu & Yen-Hsien Lee, 2007. "The Impact of the QFIIs Deregulation on Normal and Abnormal Information Transmission Between the Stock and Exchange rates in Taiwan," Economics Bulletin, Economics Bulletin, vol. 3(22), pages 1-10. [Downloadable!]
  20. Peter Christoffersen & Kris Jacobs & Chayawat Ornthanalai, 2009. "Exploring Time-Varying Jump Intensities: Evidence from S&P500 Returns and Options," CIRANO Working Papers 2009s-34, CIRANO. [Downloadable!]
  21. David S. Bates, 2009. "U.S. Stock Market Crash Risk, 1926-2006," NBER Working Papers 14913, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  22. Daal, Elton & Naka, Atsuyuki & Yu, Jung-Suk, 2004. "Volatility clustering, leverage effects, and jumps dynamics in emerging Asian equity markets," Working Papers 2004-05, University of New Orleans, Department of Economics and Finance. [Downloadable!]
  23. Fulvio Corsi & Davide Pirino & Roberto Reno, 2009. "Volatility Forecasting: The Jumps Do Matter," Global COE Hi-Stat Discussion Paper Series gd08-036, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University. [Downloadable!]
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