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Price Formation and Liquidity in the U.S. Treasury Market: The Response to Public Information

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Author Info
Michael J. Fleming (Federal Reserve Bank of New York,)
Eli M. Remolona (Bank for International Settlements and the Federal Reserve Bank of New York)

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Abstract

The arrival of public information in the U.S. Treasury market sets off a two-stage adjustment process for prices, trading volume, and bid-ask spreads. In a brief first stage, the release of a major macroeconomic announcement induces a sharp and nearly instantaneous price change with a reduction in trading volume, demonstrating that price reactions to public information do not require trading. The spread widens dramatically at announcement, evidently driven by inventory control concerns. In a prolonged second stage, trading volume surges, price volatility persists, and spreads remain moderately wide as investors trade to reconcile residual differences in their private views. Copyright The American Finance Association 1999.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by American Finance Association in its journal The Journal of Finance.

Volume (Year): 54 (1999)
Issue (Month): 5 (October)
Pages: 1901-1915
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Handle: RePEc:bla:jfinan:v:54:y:1999:i:5:p:1901-1915

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  1. Michael W. Brandt & Kenneth A. Kavajecz, 2003. "Price Discovery in the U.S. Treasury Market: The Impact of Orderflow and Liquidity on the Yield Curve," NBER Working Papers 9529, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Reint Gropp & Arjan Kadareja, 2007. "Stale information, shocks and volatility," Working Paper Series: Finance and Accounting 173, Department of Finance, Goethe University Frankfurt am Main. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Nikolaus Hautsch & Dieter Hess, 2002. "The processing of non-anticipated information in financial markets: Analyzing the impact of surprises in the employment report," CoFE Discussion Paper 02-06, Center of Finance and Econometrics, University of Konstanz. [Downloadable!]
  4. Nikolaus Hautsch & Dieter Hess & Christoph Müller, 2008. "Price Adjustment to News with Uncertain Precision," FRU Working Papers 2008/01, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics. Finance Research Unit. [Downloadable!]
  5. David F. Babbel & Craig B. Merrill & Mark F. Meyer & Meiring de Villiers, 2001. "The Effect of Transaction Size on Off-the-Run Treasury Prices," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 01-03, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania. [Downloadable!]
  6. Michael J. Fleming & Jose A. Lopez, 1999. "Heat waves, meteor showers, and trading volume: an analysis of volatility spillovers in the U.S. Treasury market," Staff Reports 82, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Albert J. Menkveld & Asani Sarkar & Michel van der Wel, 2007. "Macro news, risk-free rates, and the intermediary: customer orders for thirty-year Treasury futures," Staff Reports 307, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
  8. Robert F. Engle & Jose Gonzalo Rangel, 2005. "The Spline GARCH Model for Unconditional Volatility and its Global Macroeconomic Causes," Working Papers 2005/13, Czech National Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  9. Meredith J. Beechey & Jonathan H. Wright, 2008. "The high-frequency impact of news on long-term yields and forward rates: Is it real?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2008-39, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  10. BIAIS, Bruno & DECLERCK, Fany, 2007. "Liquidity, Competition & Price Discovery in the European Corporate Bond Market," IDEI Working Papers 475, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse. [Downloadable!]
  11. Linda S. Goldberg & Michael W. Klein, 2005. "Establishing credibility: evolving perceptions of the European Central Bank," Staff Reports 231, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
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  12. Torben G. Andersen & Luca Benzoni, 2007. "Do Bonds Span Volatility Risk in the U.S. Treasury Market? A Specification Test for Affine Term Structure Models," CREATES Research Papers 2007-25, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus. [Downloadable!]
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  13. Jacob Gyntelberg & Guonan Ma & Eli Remolona, 2006. "Developing corporate bond markets in Asia," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Developing corporate bond markets in Asia, volume 26, pages 13-21 Bank for International Settlements. [Downloadable!]
  14. T. Clifton Green, 2004. "Economic News and the Impact of Trading on Bond Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(3), pages 1201-1234, 06. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Dieter Hess, 2001. "Surprises in U.S. macroeconomic releases: Determinants of their relative impact on T-Bond futures," CoFE Discussion Paper 01-01, Center of Finance and Econometrics, University of Konstanz. [Downloadable!]
  16. George J. Jiang & Ingrid Lo & Adrien Verdelhan, 2008. "Information Shocks, Jumps, and Price Discovery -- Evidence from the U.S. Treasury Market," Working Papers 08-22, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  17. Tarun Chordia & Asani Sarkar & Avanidhar Subrahmanyam, 2003. "An empirical analysis of stock and bond market liquidity," Staff Reports 164, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
  18. Asani Sarkar & Robert A. Schwartz, 2007. "Market sidedness: insights into motives for trade initiation," Staff Reports 292, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
  19. Anderson, Torben G. & Bollerslev, Tim & Diebold, Francis X. & Vega, Clara, 2002. "Micro Effects of Macro Announcements: Real-Time Price Discovery in Foreign Exchange," Working Papers 02-1, University of Pennsylvania, Wharton School, Weiss Center. [Downloadable!]
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  20. Albert J. Menkveld & Asani Sarkar & Michel van der Wel, 2007. "Macro News, Riskfree Rates, and the Intermediary," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 07-086/2, Tinbergen Institute. [Downloadable!]
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